In the second matchup of tonight’s NBA playoff slate, the Golden State Warriors will host the Minnesota Timberwolves. Steph Curry remains sidelined due to his hamstring injury, and Minnesota took the 2-1 series lead in the previous game.
The Timberwolves have climbed to -800 favorites to win the series on DraftKings Sportsbook while the Warriors hold +550 odds of advancing. Falling into a 3-1 series hole before the action returns to Minnesota would almost certainly be an impossible task to come back from the Warriors’ perspective. This is especially the case with Curry not holding a clear return timeline outside of being reevaluated with Game 6 as the hopeful target date. If the Warriors want to keep any hope for winning the series alive, it is going to take a victory tonight.
The Timberwolves enter as 5.5-point favorites and -225 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Warriors hold +185 odds of getting the outright victory, and the over/under for the matchup is set at 199.5.
The Case for the Warriors:
Steph Curry initially suffered his hamstring injury in the second quarter of the opening matchup, but Golden State still managed to produce the 99-88 victory, mostly without their star. The organization has built its identity on significant off-ball motion on offense and plenty of three-point attempts. But this variation of the Warriors has also shown flashes of being a high-level defensive team for stretches, with this proving a pathway to picking up wins.
They will need this to be the case tonight and to get some improved production from some unexpected members of the supporting cast. Jimmy Butler has shown the ability to carry a team to playoff wins in past years and is coming off a 33-point, seven-assist, and seven-rebound performance in the previous game. Jonathan Kuminga also exploded for 30 points and logged the fourth-most minutes he has seen in a game all season.
Draymond Green fouled out with 4:38 remaining in the previous game, and his absence was greatly felt on the defensive end in crunch time of that game. Minnesota also won the rebounding battle 44-36 while Julius Randle had a career-best playoff performance. The three-time All-Star finished with 24 points, 12 assists, and 10 rebounds, notching the second postseason triple-double in Timberwolves history.
There is no way around sugarcoating that the Warriors will need a special effort to get the victory without Curry tonight. But they have players with championship pedigree and took a swing on trading for Jimmy Butler due to his solid playoff track record and ability. If their defense can keep them in the game, Butler is capable of stealing one in crunch time, and the home Golden State crowd will be behind them. Count on desperation setting in with the stakes in mind, and for each member of the Warriors to be ready to bring it tonight.
The Case for the Timberwolves
With all this said, the script pretty much went the way the Warriors needed it to in the previous game, and they still did not get the result. Butler dropped 33 points and looked to be in the midst of a “Playoff Jimmy” performance before going scoreless in the final eight minutes. Jonathan Kuminga scored 30 points, which marked his fourth-highest scoring output on the season, and Minnesota was held to just 69 points through the first three quarters. The Timberwolves did not shoot the ball particularly well and trailed by four points entering the fourth, giving the Warriors a clear chance to get a win.
Nonetheless, Minnesota still produced the victory and took a 2-1 series lead.
The Timberwolves are the better and deeper team. If they play their best basketball, the Warriors cannot beat them. Trading away Karl-Anthony Towns shook up this team in the offseason, but most of this core were key contributors on this same Minnesota roster that went to the Conference Finals just last year. With Curry sidelined, Anthony Edwards is the clear-cut best player on the floor, and the Timberwolves understand their identity in a way you can’t quite say about the Warriors.
Minnesota blew out Golden State 117-92 in Game 2 in a matchup in which the Warriors never had a lead. This may be a clearer indication of how these teams really stack up. You can just about script the Timberwolves’ rotation and minutes breakdown while the Warriors continue to throw different lineup combinations at the wall and hoping something sticks.
The Pick: Timberwolves -5.5 & Under 199.5
The championship pedigree and respect for this Warriors team make me want to give them the benefit of the doubt, but the talent gap is too significant to overlook. Minnesota has had a notable size and physicality advantage in the series and has imposed itself for stretches. Even if Golden State can lean on its defense for success, Minnesota has the personnel to match this or even take it up a level. Across the regular season, Golden State ranked eighth in opponents’ points per game and seventh in defensive rating, while Minnesota ranked fifth in opponents’ points per game and sixth in defensive rating.
Still expect this to be the game plan from Golden State’s perspective, as they do not have the horses to run opposing teams out of the gym the way they once did. The Warriors have not broken 100 points yet in this series, producing scoring outputs of 97, 93, and 88. There will be a desperate effort on both sides of the ball, and count on points to be difficult to come by from Minnesota as well, so I am backing the under, which has cashed in two of the three games in the series.
But ultimately, expect Minnesota to have too much for Golden State to be able to handle and for them to look back on Game 3 being a huge missed opportunity. There are plenty of different ways the Timberwolves can win this game, while things have to play out very specific way for the Warriors to come out on top. Game 3 felt as if it were just a mediocre performance from Minnesota, while plenty of what Golden State was trying to do was successful. If it were not for a made three-pointer from Jonathan Kuminga with 5.1 seconds to go and the game already decided, they would have covered the 5.5-point spread as well.
Expect the Warriors to put up a fight, but for the Timberwolves to be too much to handle when it is all said and done. This has a chance to be a humbling experience for Golden State with Curry looking on from the sideline. Count on this game to be out of reach in the second half, and don’t be afraid to take a chance on an alternate line to get a little more value on the Timberwolves’ winning margin.
