Nobody go throwing away any gloves yet! The Royals are storming into this Friday matchup with the Red Sox on a six-game winning streak, their bats and pitching clicking on all cylinders. The Red Sox are banged up, and embroiled in a little bit of a snafu with their star—what?, batter?—infielder-slash-designated-hitter, Rafael Devers. But let’s not get lost in translation. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Friday night baseball game between the Royals and the Red Sox.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Royals vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
Kansas City’s starting pitcher, Michael Lorenzen, has been the difference-maker in recent outings, especially at home where he’s allowed just one earned run in two starts. Lorenzen’s 1.50 ERA at home this season is a stark contrast to his 5.00 ERA on the road, highlighting his ability to dominate in familiar surroundings. This contrasts with Hunter Dobbins, who’s shown some promise but struggles with consistency—his last outing saw him allowing four earned runs in 5.2 innings, and now he faces a red-hot Royals lineup.
Kansas City has capitalized on momentum, and with a team ERA of 2.99, they’ve been a model of pitching efficiency. Bobby Witt Jr. has been on fire with a 157 wRC+ over the last two weeks, showcasing his elite ability to produce offense in key situations. Witt leads the charge offensively, riding a scorching .325 average and coming off a standout performance with four hits in the last game. Vinnie Pasquantino has also been impressive with a .349 OBP and a 43.8% hard-hit rate, continuing to give the Royals power in the middle of the order. The Royals’ offensive depth has been on full display, with Vinnie Pasquantino and Maikel Garcia on the rise and knocking in runs, while their defense ranks second in MLB with a .990 fielding percentage. These elements have propelled them to one of the most solid home records in the league (15-5).
Boston, on the other hand, has a potent offense led by Alex Bregman and Rafael Devers, but they’ve shown signs of slowing down in recent days. Devers has a 41.3% fly ball rate this season, which gives him plenty of upside. But he has struggled against right-handed pitchers like Lorenzen, hitting just .220 against them in 2025. Dobbins’ ability to keep the ball in the park is crucial here, especially with the Royals’ knack for power production. Despite the Red Sox’s depth, especially in their lineup, they have struggled with clutch hitting and have had issues with runners in scoring position. Boston’s .671 OPS with RISP ranks 20th in MLB, putting them at a disadvantage in high-leverage situations.
Red Sox vs. Royals pick, best bet
Dobbins will need to pitch smart, but he’s still finding his rhythm, and Lorenzen has been the steadier option. Lorenzen’s 3.48 FIP over his last four starts shows his ability to limit hard contact and pitch efficiently, while Dobbins’ 4.14 FIP suggests he may have difficulty against a balanced Royals lineup. Tthe Royals’ bullpen—ranked fifth in ERA—will provide triage support should Lorenzen falter early.
The Royals have been dominant as home underdogs against AL East opponents, covering the run line in each of their last nine home games. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have struggled on the road and have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against AL Central teams.
Their pitching depth, especially from Lorenzen, and their offensive capability against a raw Dobbins makes Kansas City a solid value play as home dogs. Streak continues here, too.
Best bet: Royals (+100) vs. Red Sox
Laying it on Lorenzen—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
