The Atlanta Braves (18-19) head to Pittsburgh to face the Pirates (12-26) in a critical NL matchup for one underperforming franchise and one in the middle of a total reset. The Braves have found some electricity, winning three of their last four games, while Pittsburgh continues to spiral, losing seven straight. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Friday night baseball game between the Pirates and the Braves.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Pirates vs. Braves prediction, preview
Atlanta’s starting pitcher, Bryce Elder (2-1, 5.06 ERA), has been a steady hand in the rotation. Despite an elevated ERA, he’s been solid in his last four starts, going 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA. His 1.38 WHIP this season suggests he can control the game and keep Pittsburgh’s offense, one of the worst in MLB, at bay. Against a Pirates lineup that strikes out 8.5 times per game, Elder’s ability to generate weak contact with his 1.03 WHIP this season gives him a strong advantage.
On the offensive side, Atlanta’s lineup has been firing on all cylinders. They’ve averaged 4.0 runs per game, with a .240 batting average and a .388 slugging percentage. Austin Riley has led the charge, batting .286 with eight home runs and 25 RBIs, while Marcell Ozuna has contributed 5 home runs and 13 RBIs, slugging .440. The Braves rank 13th in MLB in home runs (41) and 20th in batting average. With 41 home runs on the season, Atlanta has enough firepower to break down even decent pitchers. Their patient, power-driven offense will be a real test for Bailey Falter (1-3, 5.06 ERA), who is starting for Pittsburgh.
Falter has shown flashes of solid pitching, but he’s prone to getting hit hard, especially against teams with potent lineups. His 1.21 WHIP this season and 5.06 ERA speak to his struggles with control and giving up hard contact. In 37.1 innings this year, he’s allowed six home runs, and his 4.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio shows he’s not missing enough bats to compensate. The Braves are second in MLB in wRC+ (118) and fourth in OPS (.758), meaning they can punish pitchers who lack sharp control. Falter is in for a tough matchup against Atlanta’s depth.
Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has been (once again) anemic offensively. They rank 29th in runs per game (3.11) and 27th in batting average (.219). The Pirates’ lineup has lacked any verve whatsoever, with Oneil Cruz leading the team in home runs (eight) but batting just .246. Bryan Reynolds, their second-best hitter, has five home runs and 19 RBIs, but his .219 batting average shows that he hasn’t been able to provide the spark needed to turn things around. They simply cannot hit, period.
Worse? Pittsburgh has also struggled with situational hitting, ranking near the bottom in on-base percentage (.300). Against Elder, who has kept hitters off balance all season, Pittsburgh will have to find another level of performance to keep up.
Braves vs. Pirates pick, best bet
Atlanta’s bullpen, despite a 4.02 ERA (17th in MLB), has been solid in high-leverage situations. Raisel Iglesias has converted all seven of his save chances, and the bullpen has the depth to lock down games late. Pittsburgh’s bullpen, with a 4.31 ERA (21st in MLB), has been inconsistent, with a troubling 32.2% inherited runner scoring rate. Given the Braves’ offensive depth, this is a major advantage in late innings.
The Braves have a strong track record against Pittsburgh, winning four of the last five games on the road. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the spread in seven straight home games. Elder’s recent form and the Braves’ offensive power should be more than enough to overwhelm a struggling Pirates team.
The Braves have the edge on both sides of the ball, and with Elder’s ability to keep the Pirates in check, Atlanta’s offense should have no trouble putting up runs. Take Atlanta to cover the run line and come away with a solid victory. People seem to like the Pirates in a sneaky steal spot here. Not me.
A stat-laden analysis because, you know, this game felt pretty tough to handicap if you didn’t want to just slam the Braves. Which we are anyways. Chop ’em.
Best bet: Braves -1.5 (+115) at Pirates
Braves bats are back (tonight, hopefully)—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
