It’s hard to feel better than a Tigers fan at the moment. After outscoring the lowly Rockies 21-3 in Thursday’s doubleheader in Colorado, Detroit heads home to face Texas this evening, winners of seven of its last eight games. If that wasn’t rose-colored enough, reigning American League Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal will be toeing the rubber to begin the homestand. Somewhere, Tim Robinson is smiling. Maybe Sam Richardson, too.
Let’s break down Friday’s tilt between the Tigers and the Rangers with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rangers vs. Tigers prediction, preview
If we had been presented with a matchup of Tarik Skubal and Patrick Corbin at any point in 2024, I would have said it was the most lopsided pitcher’s duel imaginable. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still pretty hilariously one-sided, but I do want to take a moment to give Corbin some props. Through five starts with the Rangers, the left-hander hasn’t been an absolute disaster. That might not sound like a compliment, yet it’s a massive improvement to the version of Corbin we saw from 2021 to last season.
Across that four-year span, Corbin’s 5.71 ERA was the highest qualified mark in MLB. It wasn’t at all a small sample, either, as the southpaw’s 679.0 innings thrown in that stretch were the 15th-most in baseball. Obviously, five good outings at the age of 35 isn’t suddenly enough to make me a believer in Corbin — and an 89.2% strand rate is begging for some serious regression — but the LHP has done well to severely cut down on both his opponent barrel rate (6.1%) and his opponent hard hit rate (31.7%). In fact, that hard hit rate ranks in the 90th percentile. Not too shabby.
The issue for Corbin on Friday is simply a red-hot Tigers lineup. Across the past two weeks, no team has hit more home runs than Detroit (23). On top of that, the whole team is slashing .289/.357/.490 with a 142 wRC+. On top of thaaaat, for the season as a whole, the Tigers owns a 132 wRC+ against left-handed pitching — the third-highest figure in the league. Detroit will be able to get to Corbin tonight and I have my doubts the Rangers will be able to keep pace.
Rangers vs. Tigers pick, best bet
Remember how I said the Tigers have the most long balls in MLB over the last 14 days? Well, Texas has the fewest. Three home runs. Three home runs in its past 13 games. For some context, five different Detroit bats have that many by themselves: Riley Greene, Colt Keith, Javier Baez, Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter.
Skubal sports a 2.21 ERA and a 2.47 FIP in 2025. In his last five starts, he’s allowed a total of three earned runs. Any way you slice it, this thing projects to be a blowout.
Best Bet: Tigers -1.5 (-118)
Skubal is a machine and the Tigers have crushed left-handed pitchers so far in 2025.
Strong Lean: Tigers Over 4.5 Runs (-110)
No team has hit more home runs that Detroit over the past two weeks (23).
