An Undisputed title fight between Welterweight king Belal Muhammad vs. No. 5 Jack Della Maddalena headlines UFC 315. Women’s Flyweight goat Valentina Shevchenko will make her eighth title defense against No. 2 Manon Fiorot in the co-main event.
The Prelims start at 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with the Main Card beginning at 10:00 p.m. ET. Here are my three best bets for UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena.
Jack Della Maddalena Moneyline (+160)
JDM matches up better than people think against the champion, Muhammad. Della Maddalena is eight years younger and has a one-inch larger standing reach. On the feet, Della Maddalena averages over two more significant strikes per minute (6.74 vs. 4.39) while landing strikes at a 10 percent better rate (53% vs. 43%).
Although Della Maddalena is still under 30, he isn’t just happy to be here. He feels ready to seize the moment and win gold for the first time in his career. Since entering the UFC in 2022, he is 7-0 with five finishes.
Even though Muhammad has reached his peak as a champion and continues to elevate his game, his age will eventually catch up to him. His 37th birthday is near, and fighters in the welterweight division at that age rarely succeed. Muhammad is confident in this matchup, but let his brash comments dismissing JDM fool you. Della Maddalena is a worthy challenger with the tools to defeat the champion. Getting him at +160 on DraftKings Sportsbook is a great value considering how close of a matchup this is on paper.
Valentina Shevchenko Moneyline (+114)
Shevchenko has had one of the most outstanding and accomplished careers in women’s MMA history. But there is still history to chase. Shevchenko has eight title wins, three fewer than Amanda Nunes, who is regarded as the greatest women’s fighter ever. She will now begin her second title reign against Fiorot.
Fiorot is a rising contender, having won 12 straight fights, but she is only two years younger than Shevchenko. The champion has a larger reach but is two inches shorter. Fiorot is a tough competitor, but Shevchenko has a significant advantage in terms of experience and on the ground. Shevchenko averages 2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 64 percent rate. If Shevchenko can extend this fight into the later rounds, she can use her championship experience to her advantage. Getting one of the best women’s fighters of all time at +114 on DraftKings Sportsbook is an excellent value play.
Navajo Stirling To Win By KO/TKO/DQ (-105)
The latest City Kickboxing and Head Coach Eugene Bareman product is Navajo Stirling. In December 2024, Stirling made his UFC debut and beat Tuco Tokkos by unanimous decision. It wasn’t a win by knockout, but he still dominated, landing 46 more significant strikes than his opponent.
Before that, Striling had four straight knockouts. Now he faces Ivan Erslan in the first bout of the Prelims. This is an excellent matchup for Stirling since he possesses a 6.5-inch reach advantage (79″ vs. 72.5″) while being taller by two inches (6’4″ vs. 6’2″). On DraftKings Sportsbook, Stirling is a -325 favorite, but the better value is to get him to win by knockout at -105. If Stirling pressures Erslan early in this bout, a knockout will likely occur.
