After wrestling home court advantage away with the 109-94 victory in Game 2, the Golden State Warriors took care of business at home to go up 3-1 in the series with the Houston Rockets.
There were no problems in Houston for the home team in Game 5, though, as the Rockets dominated.
Now, we return to the Bay, where the Warriors look to close out the series and advance to the next round.
During the regular season, Golden State was 24-17 at home. Houston was 23-17 on the road. In two regular season head-to-head meetings in the Bay, the teams split.
In the first three games of this series, the Warriors held the Rockets to sub-40% shooting in every contest. In the last two games, though, Houston converted 49.4% and 55.1% from the field. Is this just a heater or have the Rockets found something with adjustments? Probably a little bit of both.
Now comes the fun part, as Steve Kerr will make some adjustments while the raucous crowd in the Bay should provide a boost for the Warriors. In addition, the Rockets likely won’t make over half their shots as they did last game.
Houston is trying to become the 14th team in NBA history to come back from a 3-1 deficit.
DraftKings Sportsbook has GSW -5 over HOU at home with the total at 203.5. GSW is -450 to win the series while HOU is +350 to win three straight and advance to the next round.
As for injuries, Jonathan Kuminga is available. Jock Landale is out. Keep track of injury updates at DK Live.
Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $400K Shootaround [$100K to 1st] (HOU at GSW)
Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors
Captain’s Picks
Brandin Podziemski ($12,300 CP): It’s been a wild ride for Podziemski this series. In Game 2, he only played 14 minutes and shot 0-for-5 from the field with no counting stats. Two games later, he stuffed the stat sheet with 26 points, five rebounds, five assists, a block and two steals in 40 minutes. Yeah, the range of outcomes is Grand Canyon-esque. I’m going to embrace the volatility here, though, as the price is decent while the upside is there. Podziemski also frees up salary to fit some high-priced options at utility. The main reason for liking Podziemski is that Houston is focused on shutting down Stephen Curry, denying him the ball, sometimes with two players while converging on him whenever it can. That should allow Podziemski opportunities to both score and make plays for teammates.
UTIL Plays
Jimmy Butler ($10,600): As alluded to in the Podziemski section, I’m fading Curry, which could go horribly wrong, but that’s the stance I’m taking. If Curry is neutralized somewhat, then that could allow Butler to do his thing. Butler only played eight minutes in Game 3 due to injury. He only played 25 minutes last game due to blowout. In the other three contests, Playoff Jimmy B made an appearance, playing at least 40 minutes in all and contributing 61.75, 52.75 and 44.75 FPTS. I’m expecting another big performace from Jimmy B as the Warriors look to close out the series.
Steven Adams ($3,000): We are going to need value if we want to squeeze in the higher-priced options. Adams isn’t going to play 30 minutes, but somewhere in the 20-minute are should be expected. He’s out there to set bone-rattling screens and clean the glass. The two-big lineup with he and Sengun has been devastating at times and allows the Rockets to play their zone defense at times without fear of getting worked on the boards. Adams has put up at least 20 FPTS in three of the five games this series.
Alperen Sengun ($11,200): Sengun has put up over 40 FPTS in all but one game this series, with two of those over 50 FPTS. He’s a threat to triple-double on any night and does contribute in the defensive categories. It’s the all-around game that is very appealing and provides a relatively high floor. Last game, he only scored 15 points, but grabbed nine rebounds, dished out nine dimes, blocked two shots and nabbed two steals. The offense often flows through Sengun and he should have plenty of opportunities to rack up fantasy goodies.
Fades
Stephen Curry ($12,000): I’m not happy about this because Curry can get spicy hot on any given night, but I’m thinking the ownership will be high while I’ve decided to leverage Podziemski and Butler off of him. Curry went for 65.75 FPTS in Game 3, so that’s the kind of ceiling we are dealing with. The next game, though, he only went for 26.25 FPTS. The Rockets have been physical with Curry, denying him and often having two guys on him. They will likely continue making life difficult for Curry, which decreases the chance of a ceiling game.
THE OUTCOME
The Rockets shot sub-40% in the first three games of the series, failing to score over 94 points in any of those contests. In the last two games, they have scored 106 and 116 points while shooting 49% and 55% from the field. I think this game reverts back to the grind-it-out, defensive battles at the start of the series, with Playoff Jimmy hitting the game winner to close out the series.
Final Score: Warriors 98, Rockets 96
