Three months after acquiring Luka Dončić in arguably the most shocking trade in NBA history, the Los Angeles Lakers’ season is on the brink. Game 1 aside, the games have been fairly competitive. But it doesn’t matter; after back-to-back losses on the road to the Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles has its back against the wall, down 3-1 in its first-round series.
And in the most dire of situations, Dončić has thrived. In eight career elimination games, Dončić has averaged 33.4 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 7.5 assists per game, although it’s worth noting that his team is just 4-4 in such situations. We’ll see what he produces tonight against the Timberwolves at 10 p.m. ET at home.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Lakers are 5.5-point favorites, with the total is set for 207.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around James.
Best Luka Dončić Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Luka Dončić 14+ First-Quarter Points (+200)
Watch Dončić enough, and a pattern emerges: he’ll usually come out blazing in the first quarter, slow it down somewhat in the second, turn it back up in the third, and run out of gas somewhat in the fourth even if he hits several clutch shots. That’s been true this series, as well; he scored 16 first-quarter points in Game 1, 16 more in Game 2, just two in Game 3 as he was dealing with an illness, and 13 more in the opening game of Game 4. 47 of his 123 points, as well as 33 of his 86 field goal attempts, have come in the opening frame. More generally, Dončić ranks fifth among postseason participants in overall usage rate but first in first-quarter usage rate. He also shoots a solid 45.5% in the opening frame and north of 50% in each of the subsequent quarters before his field goal percentage drops off precipitously in the fourth.
Luka Dončić O6.5 Assists (-125)
Dončić’s playmaking hasn’t been up to par this series, as he’s had two or fewer assists in two of the four games and hasn’t yet had a double-digit assist game. There are genuine reasons to be concerned: he’s only averaging 10.5 potential assists per game, down from 13.7 per game during the regular season, and Minnesota has forced some of Los Angeles’ role players — especially Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura — into a sub-optimal shot diet by preventing them from getting to the basket. But 6.5 dimes is an incredibly low line for a player who has been held below seven just 20 times in his 54-game postseason career and, barring injury, will certainly play at least 42 minutes tonight.
It’s just a matter of whether Reaves, Hachimura, and Dorian Finney-Smith can hit their shots. In Game 4, Hachimura did do everything needed of him in a 23-point effort. Reaves, too, has been better in the last two games, although he wasn’t remotely able to finish inside in Game 3. Finney-Smith hasn’t been very impactful on either end of the floor yet, but he shot 41.1% from deep during the regular season and, more crucially, Dončić trusts him. When the defense collapses on him in the fourth quarter, he usually makes the right play, and this time, I think the Lakers’ shooters will convert.
