Most of the games take place this afternoon. I’ll give a couple of bets I like for today that you can find on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs
The Pick: Both teams to score 2+ runs through first five innings +135
I like this play and think it’s an interesting way to bet an offensive filled first five innings. This is one of the higher game totals on the board with 9 runs and I think both pitchers will struggle early. For the Braves, they’ll be calling up AJ Smith-Shawver to make his first start of the season. He was decent in limited action last year but his Triple-A numbers this year are quite concerning. 8 starts (31 innings) he has a 6.10 ERA with a 6.88 FIP, a 10.1 K/9 (that’s a solid number!) a 4.9 BB/9 (that’s not) and a 2.6 HR/9. Those are not good numbers at all. When he was up at the majors last year, he threw his fastball over 50% of the time, so that should be his main pitch once again.
For the Cubs, they’ll be starting Ben Brown. He’s been bouncing in and out of the bullpen and making spot starts when needed. I can’t imagine he goes deep in this game, as he’s only pitched more than 4.2 innings once in his 11 appearances. His numbers are good overall and his starts have been clean but his opponents were the Red Sox, Mets, Diamondbacks and Padres. In his lone relief appearance against the Braves, he allowed one run on four hits through two innings. He’s also someone with very heavy fastball usage, throwing it over 65% of the time.
You can also take advantage of the Early Win promo that is available on DraftKings Sportsbook. Opt in and if the team you bet on the moneyline go up by two runs at any point in the game, that bet will win. See below for more information.
Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The Pick: Jack Flaherty outs recorded over 17.5 -125
Flaherty is one of the most underrated signings from this past offseason currently. Signed to a one-year, $14M deal, he’s been everything the Tigers could have hoped for in more. Flaherty has made nine starts and has a 3.79 ERA with a 2.91 xERA, an 11.8 K/9, which is currently a career high, and just a 1.3 BB/9. He’s gone at least six innings, which is the number we’re looking for today, in all but one start. This will be his first time seeing the Blue Jays and he could dominate in yet another game. Flaherty has three pitches he focuses on, a four seam, a slider and a knuckle curve. Against those pitches, in order, the Blue Jays have a wOBA of .313, .267 and .400. The knuckle curve wOBA is very high but it’s in a very small sample, as in all the pitches they’ve seen, the knuckle curve was thrown against them only 2% of the time. Regardless, I think this is another spot to back Flaherty to go over 17.5 outs recorded against a struggling Blue Jays offense.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
