We’ve got a seven-game featured MLB slate kicking off at 6:40 p.m. ET on Friday and, if I’m being honest, it’s stacked from a pitching perspective. Obviously that’s easy to say when Spencer Strider ($11,000) is the headliner, but it’s just as much about the depth as it is the presence of Atlanta’s ace.
Don’t believe me? Let’s dive in and break it all down.
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PITCHER
Stud
Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Seattle Mariners, $9,300 – Quietly, Peralta has been one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball the past few seasons, though injuries have prevented the 27-year-old from making the true leap to superstardom. Here’s hoping that’s not the case in 2024 or, for our specific purposes, on Friday. To wit, since the beginning of 2021, Peralta owns a 3.38 ERA and a 3.42 FIP across 394.0 innings of work. The RHP also sports an eye-popping 31.3% strikeout rate within that span. In terms of matchup, Seattle has struggled to do much with the bats so far this season, entering this evening’s tilt with a 68 wRC+ and a league-high 30.2% strikeout rate of their own.
Value
Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets, $8,300 – Until the Mets prove they can hit their way out of a paper bag, I’ll continue to pick against them in 2024. I mean, it’s been really, really bleak. New York is hitting a league-low .173 through six games with a .096 ISO and a 58 wRC+. Woof. As for Greene, you know exactly what you’re getting every time he takes the mound. Will there be hard hit balls by his opponent? Definitely. However, Greene possesses elite velocity for a starter and that translates incredibly well to strikeout upside. In his first outing of the season, Greene racked up 17 whiffs and seven strikeouts against the Nationals.
INFIELD
Stud
Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox, $6,300 – It’s just hard to fade Witt with how well he’s been swinging the bat. It’s only a seven-game sample, but the former top prospect looks like he’s about to make another leap, having already registered five multi-hit performances while leading the league in expected wOBA (.553). Don’t forget, he also steals bases. Erick Fedde ($7,200) looked decent in his return to MLB last week, yet I don’t really have much trust in him — nor do I fear the White Sox’s bullpen. Witt and the Royals could be in for a big day.
Stud
Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, $5,500 – Get ready for a phrase you’ll hear a lot this season: No team has a higher implied total on tonight’s slate than the Braves. Albies is a big reason why. While the infielder is a switch-hitter, have no doubt, you want to be using him exclusively in matchups with a left-handed opponent like Tommy Henry ($6,000). For his career, Albies is slashing .337/.363/.571 with a .234 ISO and a 145 wRC+ against southpaws. It’s clearly when he’s at his most dangerous.
Value
Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, $4,000 – It’s 2024. You probably don’t need me to remind you at this point that Patrick Corbin ($5,500) is washed, but I’ll do it anyway. The 34-year-old posted a 6.16 xERA last season and, last week, he gave up four earned runs in 4.1 innings against the Reds. He’s not very good anymore. Meanwhile, Bohm hit .303 with a .290 ISO versus LHPs in 2023. He’s also had a lot of individual success versus Corbin as constant NL East foes, with a 1.213 OPS in 22 career at-bats.
Value
Orlando Arcia, Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, $3,600 – Arcia has started the season hot, slashing .450/.476/.650 across his first 21 plate appearances. However, the reason he’s viable on this slate has more to do with his numbers from 2023. Arcia crushed left-handed pitching last year, managing a .302 average with a 168 wRC+ in 112 PAs. That should play well against Henry, who sports a career 5.25 FIP.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, $6,500 – No Braves stack is complete without Acuna, the reigning National League MVP. Among his many accomplishments in 2023, Acuna happened to lead all qualified hitters in expected wOBA against left-handed pitchers (.475). He also posted a 174 wRC+ when facing right-handers, so don’t get too worried that his production will fall off when the Diamondbacks eventually go to their bullpen.
Value
Chas McCormick, Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, $4,000 – The Astros might have been swept to open the season, but don’t let that fool you. This lineup is still arguably the best in all of baseball, as showcased by a league-leading 154 wRC+ through a week of action. Houston can put up some crooked numbers quickly, and McCormick is often in the middle of it all when the team is facing an LHP. In 138 plate appearances within the split in 2023, McCormick registered a 1.008 OPS and a 177 wRC+. Cody Bradford ($6,700), you’ve been warned.
Value
MJ Melendez, Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox, $3,400 – Melendez seems to be locked into the five-spot in Kansas City’s lineup when the team is facing a right-handed opponent. It makes sense. For as awful as the converted catcher was against LHPs in 2023, Melendez showed promise in opposite-hand matchups, finishing the year with a .181 ISO and a 103 wRC+ within the split. Melendez’s viability on this slate is also partially recency bias. He’s looked amazing to begin 2024, slashing .333/.391/.667 in six games.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Relay Throw [$50K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
