For the first time in five years and just the second time ever, Major League Baseball will be played in London this weekend as the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals renew their rivalry across the pond. First pitch of Saturday’s series opener is set for 1:10 p.m. ET from historic London Stadium. Lefty Justin Steele (7-2, 2.71 ERA) will get the ball for Chicago, while St. Louis turns to veteran Adam Wainwright (3-1, 5.56).
Chicago enters as the -140 favorite on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Cardinals at +120. The run total is set at a whopping 13.5. (Here’s your reminder that the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox combined for 10 homers and 50 runs across their two games at the rather tiny London Stadium back in 2019.)
Cubs-Cardinals picks: Saturday, June 24
Injury report
Cubs
Day to day: SS Dansby Swanson (wrist)
Out: 3B Patrick Wisdom (wrist), RP Brad Boxberger (forearm), RP Brandon Hughes (knee)
Cardinals
Day to day: OF Jordan Walker (illness)
Out: RP Ryan Helsley (forearm), INF Jose Fermin (quad), OF Tyler O’Neill (back)
Starting pitchers
Justin Steele vs. Adam Wainwright
Steele was solid in his return to action after almost three weeks on the shelf with a forearm strain, going five innings and allowing two runs in a win over the Baltimore Orioles. The lefty should be even more stretched out on Saturday, and he’ll hope to continue what’s been a breakout season thus far. Steele has allowed more than two earned runs just three times across his 13 starts this year, going at least six innings nine times over that span. Even more impressively, he’s done all that on the back of really just two pitches: a four-seam fastball that he throws fully 62% of the time and a slider that works off of that which he’ll throw against both righties and lefties. When he’s burying the latter and keeping the former elevated, he’s been awfully tough to hit.
Wainwright, on the other hand, has gotten hit just about as hard as any pitcher in baseball. The 41-year-old sits in the bottom five percent of the league in expected batting average, expected slugging percentage and strikeout rate, fanning just 24 batters in 43.2 innings of work. To his credit, he’s eaten innings for a Cardinals team that’s thin on pitching — he’s gone five or more in all eight of his starts — and he’s largely managed to at least keep St. Louis in the game, only allowing more than four runs just once. Still, he’s given up at least seven hits in all but one of his outings this year, and not even his legendary curveball is fooling batters the way it once did.
Over/Under pick
This is obviously far and away the highest run total of the day, and understandably so: The last time MLB came to London Stadium back in 2019, the Yankees and Red Sox played to final scores of 17-13 and 12-8. The stadium’s baseball dimensions have been extended a bit for this series — seven feet deeper (back to 392) in dead center and five feet deeper (back to 387) in the alleys. That’s still smaller than most Major League fields, though, and given how balls were flying out of the park last time — and how much Wainwright could struggle against this resurgent Cubs offense — I’m backing the over. Chicago and St. Louis are both in the top 10 of team wRC+ over the last two weeks, meaning we could see some fireworks across the pond.
Pick: Over 13.5
Moneyline pick
Steele may not fully be back to his pre-injury self just yet, but he looked solid in his return from the IL last week — and he’s certainly the more trustworthy option between these two starters. Wainwright is already allowing more baserunners than just about any starter around, and playing in this offensive environment will only make things harder for the veteran. With Chicago having won eight of 10 and slowly climbing up the NL Central standings, I’ll back the Cubs as not-too-heavy favorites.
Pick: Cubs
