The worst part about early-season baseball is the weather. Unfortunately for us, we’ve got some spots to keep an eye on for tonight’s nine-game featured slate. Tigers-Mets looks like a complete avoid, as that contest could be called as soon as this afternoon. They’re also expecting rain in Chicago, but not enough to have too much of an impact on play. Keep that in mind as you’re building your lineups.
For everything else, let’s dive in.
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PITCHER
Stud
Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners, $8,800 – It was one start and it was against the Athletics, but I’m fully drinking the Bieber Kool-Aid. The veteran spent his offseason working with Driveline, trying to re-gain some of the fastball velocity he’d lost in recent years. Well, it looks like it worked. Bieber sat 92.3 mph on Opening Day, a full 1.0 mph uptick from 2023. He also finished six scoreless innings with 18 whiffs and 11 strikeouts. Meanwhile, the Mariners’ bats have struggled out of the gate. Across five games, Seattle owns a 62 wRC+ and a league-leading 31.2% strikeout rate. Woof.
Value
Reynaldo Lopez, Atlanta Braves at Chicago White Sox, $7,500 – Why not? Lopez’s spring wasn’t perfect — his velocity was down and his walk rate remains high — but the former reliever did post a 2.16 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in his 16.2 innings. Still, this is mostly about the matchup. As you would expect, the White Sox have had their issues scoring runs so far in 2024. In fact, the team enters play on Tuesday with a league-worst .168 average and a 29.6% strikeout rate. Javier Assad ($6,600) is also cheap with a great matchup, yet I think Lopez has more raw upside for GPPs.
INFIELD
Stud
Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Yankees, $5,000 – Walker is at his best when facing a left-hander. In fact, Walker mashed 13 home runs off of LHPs in 2023, posting a .319 ISO and a 141 wRC+ within the split. Nestor Cortes ($7,300) is an extreme fly ball pitcher who has struggled to keep the ball in the park since the beginning of last season. That sound like a recipe for success to me.
Stud
Christopher Morel, Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies, $4,500 – Morel has had a fantastic start to the season, slashing .412/.412/.706 with a 187 wRC+ across his first 17 plate appearances. It’s not hard to see why the Cubs have made the 24-year-old their primary option at clean-up hitter in 2024. Morel gets a juicy opportunity to add to his stats on Tuesday, as Chicago will square-off with Kyle Freeland ($6,300). Even putting aside his nightmarish start on Opening Day, Freeland is a lefty and Morel thrived in his opposite-hand matchups in 2023. To wit, Morel owned a .326 ISO and a .372 wOBA within the split.
Value
Gabriel Moreno, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Yankees, $3,900 – Moreno hasn’t been hitting nearly as well as last October to start 2024, but a matchup with the left-handed Cortes might be just what the doctor ordered. In 116 plate appearances within the split, Moreno slashed .352/.371/.528 with a 139 wRC+. We all know how much pop the former top prospect has in his bat and tonight could be a night he shows that skill off.
Value
Orlando Arcia, Atlanta Braves at Chicago White Sox, $3,300 – Arcia is red-hot to start the season, having already racked up five doubles in just four games. He’ll look to add a few more extra-base knocks to his stat sheet on Tuesday against Garrett Crochet ($7,000). This is an interesting matchup. On the one hand, Crochet has amazing stuff and looked incredible on Opening Day. On the other, this is the Braves. Atlanta owns this slate’s highest implied run total and it’s justified. Specific to Arcia, in 112 plate appearances versus LHPs in 2023, the infielder registered a .604 slugging percentage and a 168 wRC+.
OUTFIELD
Stud
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $5,600 – It seemed like every cold Astros bat broke out aside from Alvarez in Monday’s win over the Jays. Maybe Tuesday is the night for the hulking LHB. Small samples aside, Alvarez has a career .306 ISO and a 167 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. He’s one of the best lefty hitters in the game. Bar none. Jose Berrios ($7,700) looked good on Opening Day for Toronto, yet the RHP has conceded 1.7 home runs per nine to opposing lefties since the beginning of 2022.
Stud
Tyler O’Neill, Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics, $4,300 – With so many left-handed bats on the roster, I’m curious to see how the Red Sox construct their lineup against the a southpaw on Tuesday. One thing is for sure: O’Neill will be right in the middle of it. Alex Wood ($6,000) will take the mound for Oakland, fresh off allowing seven hits and six earned runs to the Guardians on Opening Day. For his career, O’Neill sports an .817 OPS and a 123 wRC+ against LHPs. Not too shabby.
Value
Victor Scott II, St.Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres, $2,000 – Scott’s bat hasn’t been great to start the season, which has limited his opportunities to showcase his elite speed on the basepaths. However, he’s still at the absolute bare minimum and Yu Davrish ($8,200) can’t hold a runner to save his life. According to Baseball Savant’s run game metrics, Darvish was among the worst in baseball last season, allowing 16 base advances. If Scott can get on, a stolen base is nearly a lock.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $300K Bat Flip [$100K to 1st]
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
