It’s Opening Day (again) for Major League Baseball. After one of the most ridiculous and drawn out offseason in history, all 30 teams will be in action starting Thursday at 1:10 p.m. ET. I’ll give some bets that I like for today and hopefully start the season off on the right foot.
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Pick: Orioles run line -0.5 through first five innings -125
We’re looking for the Orioles to have the lead after five innings are completed in Baltimore to win this bet. This is a lopsided pitching matchup between O’s ace Corbin Burnes and Angels…ace…(?) Patrick Sandoval. I don’t take Spring Training stats into account much but when you’ve allowed 12 runs (nine earned) on 16 hits and six walks through 11.1 innings, that grabs my attention. It picks up where Sandoval ended last year, ending the month of September with a 4.98 ERA, a .373 wOBA, and a 4.78 FIP. Not to mention, this Angels lineup is disgusting, and I don’t mean that in a good way.
The Orioles were one of the most profitable F5 run line teams in the league last season. With a record of 92-72, you can see why. For reference, you only made a profit betting every F5 run line on five teams last season. Burnes is very strong out of the gate, evidenced by his numbers the first time through the order last year. He posted a strong 2.71 ERA with a .247 wOBA with a 9.2 K/9 and a 3.73 FIP.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals
The Pick: Jake Fraley over 1.5 H/R/RBI -120
I like the Reds a lot going against Josiah Gray in Cincinnati. One part of Gray’s game that’s been consistent in his three year career his been the lack of command. He has a career 4.2 BB/9 and just came off a career-high 4.5 through 159 innings. So with that in mind, Fraley is batting cleanup for the Reds and has a good opportunity to be up with men on base. A hit and and RBI would do the trick or any combination of hits, runs, RBI. I like this bet more than over 1.5 bases because it covers me if Gray’s command is really off and he walks Fraley multiple times. If he comes around and scores twice, we’re good.
If you really want to go deep, the Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer and Fraley are all plus money to draw over 0.5 a walk.
Arizona Diamondacks vs Colorado Rockies
The Pick: Diamondbacks team total over 4.5 runs -125
The Diamondbacks have the luxury of starting the season against the Rockies, one of the most pathetic franchises in the league. Fresh off losing 103 games, they basically used the offseason to pick up a backup catcher and two below average starters. Literally made ZERO improvements (which is why I bet this team to have the fewest wins at +210). So, I’m looking toward to D-Backs to take full advantage and put up some runs. They’ll face Kyle Freeland, who was somehow worse on the road than he was at Coors Field. Freeland had a .368 wOBA, a 5.98 FIP and 15 of his 29 home runs allowed on the road.
You can also play my Opening Day SGP over on the Sportsbook. From your mobile device, navigate to the MLB section and then scroll through the SGP cards until you come across mine below.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
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