After only a handful of games yesterday, Friday features every team in action. Let’s get into a couple bets I like on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins
The Pick: Red Sox run line -0.5 through first five innings +120
Backing the Red Sox on the run line through the first five innings has been extremely profitable. They’re a ridiculous 22-10 in that scenario and you’d be up 11 units if you took it every game thus far. That 22-10 record is the best in the league, tied with the Phillies. The pitching matchup is lopsided, in my opinion. Tanner Houck is taking on Chris Paddack, both of whom have very different numbers. Paddack owns a 5.88 ERA with an xERA of 5.52, a 7.2 K/9 and a 1.7 HR/9. Houck, like the rest of the Sox rotation, have been nearly untouchable. He sports a 1.60 ERA with a xERA of 3.04, a 9.3 K/9 and a 0.23 HR/9. Houck is certainly in for some regression, as noted by his 3.04 xERA, but even still, that numbers is fantastic.
I also think it’s worth nothing that the Twins come into this game riding a 10-game winning streak. They’re playing great! But what many fail to mention, is that they also won SEVEN of those games against the lowly White Sox. I would HOPE they’re winning those games. I’m curious to see how this Twins teams performs against a team that actually has some pitching. I’m guessing we see a hard 180 turn on for this offense. Thus, I’m back the Sox on that first five inning run line.
Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pick: Game Total over 8.5 runs -110
This game is not taking place in Coors Field, but I do believe we’ll see a good amount of offense in this one. For the Rockies, they’ll be starting Cal Quantrill, who has a 5.34 ERA and a 4.12 xERA. He’s a pure contact pitcher, who has a K/9 of just 4.7 and a 3.9 BB/9. In the short sample, Quantrill has already amassed a 6.00 ERA with a .353 wOBA on the road. Quantrill has also been giving up a lot of home runs. Through 32 innings he’s allowed six home runs. For perspective, he only gave up 11 in 99.2 innings last season. Pitching in Coors will do that, but Quantrill has seen his fly ball rate jump up to nearly 40% of the season, which includes at and away from Coors.
Martin Perez is pitching for the Pirates. On the surface, it looks like a good matchup for him. The Rockies are not a strong club against lefties, as evidenced by a .293 wOBA with an 88 wRC+. HOWEVER, they’ve hit Perez’s primary pitch very well, even when thrown by a lefty. Perez throws a sinker 37% of the time followed by a cutter. Against sinkers against lefties, the Rockies are slashing .382/.410/.436 with a .374 wOBA. Take away the sinkers they’ve seen at home, the Rockies are still slashing a very healthy .375/.417/.375 with a .357 wOBA. I think both starters will struggle in this game, leading to an over on the game total.
You can also take advantage of the Early Win promo that is available on DraftKings Sportsbook. Opt in and if the team you bet on the moneyline go up by two runs at any point in the game, that bet will win. See below for more information.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago White Sox
The Pick: Sonny Gray to record a win “Yes” -110
The Cardinals are massive favorites tonight, currently -278 on the moneyline as I write this Friday morning. It’s a steep price to pay. However, one way potentially around this is taking Sonny Gray to record a win. He’s been nearly untouchable thus far through four starts, sporting a 1.16 ERA with a 2.13 xERA. His strikeout numbers are way up with a 12.3 K/9. This is a huge jump from where he’s been the past two seasons, as he was averaging just under a strikeout per inning. Gray has recorded a win in three of the four starts he’s made and the only game he didn’t was against the Brewers. He put himself in a position to earn the win, allowing only two runs with 12 strikeouts in 6.1 innings but the Cardianls offense was silent that game. Against the lowly White Sox offense, I like Gray to record a win.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
