It’s a fantastic slate of baseball for this Friday evening. I’ll give a couple of few I’m looking toward on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins
The Pick: Phillies Team Total over 4.5 runs -110
Marlins pitcher Trevor Rogers is a broken man right now. After a rough start to the season, he was blasted for eight runs on eight hits in just 2.1 innings against the Athletics his last time out. That start moved his season numbers to a 6.15 ERA with an xERA of 5.01. His strikeouts are down from 9.5 last year to a 7.4 this season, meaning opposing hitters are making more contact. His BABIP (batting average balls in play) is also a massive .348, which is WAY higher than .286 last year. For reference, a league average BABIP sits around .300. The Phillies have good numbers against the main pitches that Rogers throws. Against lefties who throw fastballs, the Phillies are slashing .275/.380/.423 and .328/.400/.466 against sinkers.
Both sides of the plate are hitting Rogers hard. Lefties and righties both have a wOBA of at least .372. I’d expect the Phillies, who are averaging 7.6 runs per game over their last five, will once again put up some high offensive numbers. The bullpen has also been a mess, specifically looking over the past week. Over that span, they’ve thrown 24 innings and have a combined 6.38 ERA with a 5.58 FIP, a 7.5 K/9 and a 1.8 HR/9.
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Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels
The Pick: Griffin Canning under 16.5 outs recorded -115
Going over five innings is not something Canning has done often this season. In fact, of the seven starts he’s made, he’s cleared 16.5 outs once. It was his last start against the Guardians, where he went six innings, allowing just two runs on four hits. Aside from that, Canning hasn’t exceeded five innings in all of his other starts. I like taking the under on his outs prop tonight going up against the Royals. This offense is rolling right now, averaging 5.2 runs over their last five games, including 10 last night against the Angels. Canning has really struggled against lefties, posting a .381 wOBA with a 6.07 FIP and five of the six home runs he’s allowed. The Royals, which facing a right-handed pitcher, can really load up on lefties in their lineup. In these instances, we’ve seen the Royals go with as many as five lefties. I think they’ll be able to hit Canning and thus end his night early, which we’ve seen happen so many times already.
Boston Red Sox vs. Washington Nationals
The Pick: Red Sox Team Total over 2.5 runs through first five innings -120
Well, it’s a Patrick Corbin day. I bet ON Corbin the other week and I did win that bet, but it was after he allowed seven runs and somehow the Nationals came back. He’s not in my good graces and never will be, I simply had a moment of weakness. Nonetheless, I’l back to my old ways and betting AGAINST him. This looks like a good spot to take the over on the Red Sox team total through the first five innings. For as bad as Corbin has been, the Nationals bullpen is good, so I’m not looking to target that. Corbin has allowed more than 2.5 runs in every start he’s made except one, which was against the Dodgers (wtf?). He’s been abysmal the first time through the order specifically, owning an 8.18 ERA with a .521 wOBA and a 5.44 FIP. The Red Sox have done VERY well against the main pitch that Corbin throws, a sinker. Against lefties that throws that this pitch, the Red Sox are slashing .346/.452/.558.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
