Editor’s Note: This guest post is from PoolGenius, whose expert bracket picks and tools have helped subscribers win over $2.5 million in prizes since 2017.
March Madness isn’t about guessing Cinderellas—it’s about finding upsets with real winning chances. This article lists the three best upsets to target in your NCAA bracket picks.
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3 Most Likely Upsets For Your NCAA Bracket Picks
Here are three of the best first-round upset picks for 2025. Odds to win and public pick rates are calculated by PoolGenius and may differ from other sources.
No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis
Odds to win: 75%
Public pick rate: 33%
This isn’t just a trendy 12-over-5 pick—Colorado State is actually favored in this matchup. Despite that, only 33% of the public is picking them. Sportsbooks have CSU winning 60-65% of the time, and our models go even higher at 75%.
For standard pools, this is a smart, low-risk upset pick. In upset-bonus pools, where picking lower seeds gives you extra points, Colorado State is an absolute steal.
No. 11 North Carolina or San Diego State over No. 6 Mississippi
The First Four winner between North Carolina and San Diego State will be dangerous in the First Round. History shows at-large play-in teams win at a higher rate than the usual No. 11 and 12 seeds. Plus, we have Mississippi as our weakest No. 6 seed in the field.
Only 31% of brackets are picking the winner of this play-in game to advance, despite a 55% chance of winning. That’s a major value edge.
Related: How to Make Smarter March Madness Bracket Picks & Win Your Pool
No. 12 UC San Diego over No. 5 Michigan
Odds to win: 42%
Public pick rate: 19%
Only 19% of the public is picking UC San Diego, yet our models give them a 42% shot to win. Michigan is coming off a grueling Big Ten Tournament run, which could lead to them being somewhat overrated. The Wolverines have been in close games all season, and UCSD is riding the nation’s best 15-game win streak.
This pick is flying under the radar, but for bracket pools that reward upset picks, UC San Diego could be a difference-maker.
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