Winning THE PLAYERS is probably second only to winning a major championship; the PGA TOUR’s flagship event is regularly considered akin to the year’s fifth major. But there are huge paydays available to players who simply play well. The purse — $25 million — is the largest of the season, excepting the season-ending Tour Championship, so a player finishing in solo 20th this week would take home $331,250.
At the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course, where the tournament will be played, full-swing supremacy is paramount. There are water hazards on nearly every hole, and they come into play especially on the signature 16-17-18 finishing stretch. Winds can occasionally swirl above the green at the island-green 17th, which makes an otherwise easy shot physically difficult and psychologically daunting. On the greens, TPC Sawgrass is of merely average difficulty, but from tee to green, it can be a bloodbath.
Keeping in mind the distinct challenges that the course presents, here are my three favorite golfers to be in the Top 20 come Sunday afternoon:
Best Top-20 Parlay at THE PLAYERS Championship
Collin Morikawa Top 20 Finish
For a relatively safe play with still-appealing odds — yes, Scottie Scheffler is probably going to finish in the top 20, but risking -450 odds usually isn’t worth it — go with the man who is better than anybody at getting the ball from the tee to the green, the most important attribute at TPC Sawgrass. Morikawa has finished in the Top 20 in each of his four tournaments so far in 2025, including a second-place finish last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational just two hours down I-95. Although he has only finished in the top 20 once in four appearances at THE PLAYERS, he’s a two-time major champion and will keep his nerve in big moments, especially after last weekend’s disappointment.
Justin Thomas Top 20 Finish
Getting a former champion for even odds just to finish in the Top 20 is always a worthy bet, especially when the champion is still in as good form as Thomas is. The 2021 PLAYERS champion has finished in the Top 20 in three of his five appearances this season, including Top-10 results in each of his last two tournaments. His profile is similar to Hideki Matsuyama’s, who I also considered for this parlay — lacking off the tee, but elite with his irons and around the green. Thomas is fifth in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, and he’s been especially sharp in his approaches between 125 and 150 yards, ranking fourth on TOUR in proximity from that range. The 17th hole should be right up his alley, given that it plays 137 yards and favors low fades, especially when the hole is cut in its traditional Sunday location on the right side of the green.
Sepp Straka Top 20 Finish
Like Morikawa and Thomas, Straka is stellar with his full swings, ranking 11th on the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green this season. He’s also been on an absolute tear this season, with six Top-20 finishes so far. Even more encouragingly, two of his Top-20 finishes have come during the Florida Swing, as he finished in a tie for 11th at The Cognizant Classic at the Palm Beaches two weekends ago before tying for fifth last weekend at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Of course, in a game as unpredictable as golf, past success is not always indicative of future results, but Straka has the hot form, well-rounded game, and past results (Top-20 finishes at THE PLAYERS in 2022 and 2024) to make him a relatively intuitive bet.
