The co-main event of UFC 313 is an exciting lightweight matchup between No. 3 Justin Gaethje and No. 11 Rafael Fiziev. Gaethje was initially slated to face Dan Hooker but Fiziev filled in after Hooker broke his hand in training camp. These two first faced off at UFC 286 in March 2023. Gaethje won that contest by a majority decision.
Below, I detail my favorite Justin Gaethje prop bet for Saturday’s fight against Rafael Fiziev.
Justin Gaethje over 81.5 significant strikes (-115)
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Gaethje’s over in significant strikes is 81.5, which is -115. Gaethje has hit this mark in three of his last five bouts. In Gaethje’s previous fight against Fiziev, he landed 103 significant strikes. Fiziev landed 97 significant strikes in that fight.
Even in a loss against Max Holloway, Gaethje landed over 100 significant strikes. He is one of the best strikers in the history of the UFC’s lightweight division. He averages nearly seven significant strikes per minute while landing 59 percent of his strikes. With this fight likely taking place on the feet, Gaethje has the advantage. Only two of Gaethje’s last four victories have been finishes. Gaethje will have a great chance to total more than 81.5 significant strikes if this bout goes into the third round.
