Here are a few bets I’m looking toward on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros
The Pick: Milwaukee Brewers first five innings moneyline -125
We have the Brewers ace going against a struggling young pitcher for the Astros tonight. Freddy Peralta will take on Hunter Brown in Houston in the first game of this series. You could argue Brown hasn’t been as bad as advertised, as his 7.79 ERA is accompanied by a 4.36 xERA. On top of that, in his last two starts, Brown has gone a combined 9.1 innings allowing three runs on 10 hits with 13 strikeouts against the Tigers and Mariners. However, what’s telling for me is the Brewers numbers against the type of pitches Brown throws. Brown has thrown his fastball 43% of the time. It’s a pitch opposing hitters have a .348 batting average against with a .433 wOBA. The Brewers thrive on fastballs and are slashing .295/.368/.496 with a .379 wOBA against it. The only pitch that Brown primarily throws that they struggle with is his knuckle curve, but he only throws that 13% of the time. With this in mind, I’ll be backing the Brewers on the first five moneyline.
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays
The Pick: Josh Lowe over 1.5 H/R/RBI -120
I love this spot for Lowe against Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt. If you read my articles, it should be no secret that targeting against him with left-handed bats has been quite the treat. Bassitt comes into tonight with a massive .431 wOBA with a 7.47 FIP, five of the six home runs he’s allowed and only a 7.6 K/9. Bassitt focuses on his sinker, which he’s thrown over 40% of the time. This is a pitch, which thrown by a righty, is one that Lowe has handled very well since last season. He has a .455 wOBA against it to go with a .353 ISO. Hitting near the top of the Rays lineup, I like him to go over this prop tonight.
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New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox
The Pick: New York Yankees Team Total over 4.5 runs -115
The Yankees offense is rolling right now. Coming into tonight, they’re averaging 5.2 runs per game over the last five games. Now, they have the luxury of facing one of the worst pitching staffs in the league, the Chicago White Sox. They’ll be starting Mike Clevinger, who is making his third start of the season. He’s only thrown 6.2 innings allowing four runs on 10 hits with four walks and five strikeouts. He focuses on two main pitches, a four seam fastball and a changeup, as they combined for 63% of his pitches. The Yankees have crushed fastballs, and have a team .381 wOBA with a .264 ISO. While they haven’t been as good against the changeup, the fastball dominates Clevinger’s pitch selection, throwing it 41% of the time. Between Clevinger and a shaky bullpen behind him, I think the Yankees go over this team total.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
