Thanks to the new Systems and Consistency Sheets tabs on the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub, two plays from Wednesday’s MLB slate jumped out head and shoulders above the rest.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25263747/IMG_9722.jpeg)
Bet at a top rated Sportsbook!
View the latest odds and bet online legally at a top rated Sportsbook! Place a bet now at DraftKings Sportsbook!*
*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
Leody Taveras over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs +110
Cristian Javier cooked the Twins in the ALDS, but he’s not exactly a model of consistency. Things could easily go sideways for him vs. Texas. If that happens, don’t be surprised if Taveras plays a part.
The Rangers’ No. 9 hitter is batting .348 with three extra-base hits, three RBIs and five runs scored this postseason. He’s also gone over this number five times over his last 10 and four times in seven postseason games. Throw Javier in the mix, and the centerfielder is even more likely to stay hot.
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25012063/Screen_Shot_2023_10_18_at_11.15.13_AM.png)
Taveras is 5-for-16 (.313) with two extra-base hits in his career against Javier. That also makes either his total bases prop or hits prop good value plays since both are set a 0.5 with -169 odds, but the over on his Hits+Runs+RBIs line feels just as likely to come through despite the odds difference.
Left-handed hitters put together a .273 average and .815 OPS against Javier throughout the regular season. He also had just a 1.97 strikeout-to-walk ratio against lefties, as opposed to his 3.33 mark against righty bats — which could give Martin, who’s been walked six times across 29 plate appearances, a greater chance to get on and be driven in by the top of the order.
Max Scherzer over 4.5 strikeouts -105
Houston’s lineup had one of the lowest strikeout rates against right-handed pitching this season (20.5%). Yet, Nathan Eovaldi just carved the ‘Stros up for nine over six frames in Game 2 of the ALCS. We’ve also seen Sonny Gray log six over four frames and Pablo Lopez get seven over seven vs. Houston this postseason.
Scherzer has been on the shelf since mid-September, but the right-hander worked his way up to 69 pitches against hitters in his last workout. If he’s feeling good, that’s enough of a leash for the right-hander to get in five frames on a good day. But these other right-handed pitchers have proved he doesn’t even need to last that long to go over this mark.
Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases +115
As much as I like Scherzer in this spot, Alvarez is the one hitter I expect to give him fits.
After he was kept quiet in Game 1, Houston’s big bat ran wild on Monday. This postseason run, he’s looked much more like the 2021 playoffs version of himself. Six home runs in six games, plus a pair of doubles. Wild.
Across those six games, he’s gone over this number four times. One game in which he failed to do so, the Twins did an all-hands-on-deck bullpen game. In the other instance, left-hander Jordan Montgomery was on the bump. As much as Alvarez hit well for average against both righties and lefties this season, he had a .313 ISO and 17.1% strikeout rate against righties vs. a .212 ISO and 21.3% strikeout rate against lefties. Again, the latter set of numbers are still very good, but there’s a clear preference for Alvarez. Speaking of preferences, Alvarez is 4-for-7 with a home run and three walks against Scherzer in his career.
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25012122/Screen_Shot_2023_10_18_at_11.18.03_AM.png)
Last thing: Alvarez’s HIts+Runs+RBIs line is also noteworthy at 1.5 with -130 odds. He’s gone over that number five times this postseason. If you’re worried about Scherzer pitching very carefully around Alvarez and walking him, this is an option worth considering.
Place your MLB bets at DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
