Welcome to the DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Splits and Picks series! The goal of this daily article is to bypass the noise and bias of opinion-driven betting and instead focus on the cold hard data, thereby allowing bettors to make wagers based on their heads, not their hearts.
At VSiN, we post DraftKings Sportsbook Betting Splits on a daily basis. It is constantly being updated as more bets roll in and has quickly become one of our most popular and most bookmarked pages on the website. Next to each game, we provide the percentage of real bets and dollars each side is receiving. By monitoring and dissecting the data, bettors are able to identify the most popular public plays, the top contrarian opportunities, and most important of all, the teams and sides taking in the most respected money from professional bettors.
Keep in mind that the “bets” column shows the percentage of overall tickets a side is receiving. This lets us know where the public is. If a team is getting 75% or more of the bets, that’s a public play that contrarian bettors will look to fade. The “handle” column represents the percentage of money or dollars a side is receiving. If a team is receiving at least 10 percentage points more money than bets, that’s a good indication of sharp money in their favor.
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Today’s NBA Betting Splits on DraftKings Sportsbook
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Top Sharp Bets
Timberwolves -13 vs. Mavericks (31% bets, 64% money)
This line opened with the Timberwolves listed as a 10-point home favorite. The public thinks this line is a bit high and currently 69% of bets are taking the points with the road dog Mavericks. However, despite this lopsided support toward Dallas we’ve actually seen the line move drastically in favor of Minnesota, -10 to -13. This signals a sharp “fade the trendy dog” system match on the Timberwolves, with pros laying the points with the contrarian home favorite. Minnesota is only receiving 31% of bets but 64% of money, indicating a 33 percentage point smart money discrepancy. One big reason for the steam move toward Minnesota is the fact that Dallas will be without Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving due to injury. The Timberwolves also enjoy a notable “rest vs. tired” advantage, as Minnesota last played on Tuesday while the Mavs played last night. Fading teams on the second leg of a back-to-back has gone 77-63 ATS (55%) this season. The Timberwolves are 11-7 ATS (61%) as a favorite this season. The Mavericks are 3-8 ATS (27%) as a dog.
Hornets at Lakers Under 226.5 (25% bets, 75% money)
This total opened at 229 and we’ve seen it come crashing down to 226.5, signaling a wave of respected under money banking on a lower-scoring game. This movement is especially notable because 75% of bets are taking the over, yet the line fell. Why would the oddsmakers drop the total to make it easier for the public to cash the over? Because they’ve taken in wiseguy action on the under, forcing them to adjust the line downward. The under is only receiving 25% of bets but 75% of money, indicating a 50 percentage point smart money discrepancy. There are several injuries to monitor on both sides, as LeBron James and Anthony Davis are questionable for the Lakers while Gordon Hayward is out, Mark Williams is doubtful and Brandon Miller is questionable for the Hornets. Both teams rank in the bottom ten in offensive efficiency, with the Lakers ranking 21st and the Hornets 26th. The Lakers are favored by 12.5 points, which matches a “big spread under” system. When a big favorite enjoys a substantial lead or coasts toward a blowout, typically they take their foot off the gas in the latter stages of the game, leading to less scoring.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.