Klay Thompson woke up from his slumber and rescued Miami in a thriller overtime win against the Clippers by hitting the game winner. Tonight, he and the Miami Heat will visit Chase Center to play against his former team, the Golden State Warriors. They will tip off at 10 PM ET, with Golden State favored by 6.5 points (-118) on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The rest advantage belongs to Golden State, which last played Monday. Miami needed overtime Wednesday, with Giannis Antetokounmpo playing 41 minutes through a sprained right wrist. His Thursday availability remained unconfirmed. Golden State is without Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody, and Gui Santos, leaving holes in its wing depth and frontcourt. Al Horford’s return after resting Monday should help against Miami’s size.
Let’s break down tonight’s matchup.
Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors preview, prediction
Miami’s 117-116 win over the Clippers was impressive, but they got bailed out by Thompson’s corner three. The Heat erased a 20-point deficit behind Bam Adebayo’s 35 points, Thompson’s uncharacteristic 30, and Antetokounmpo’s 27. The victory pushed the Heat to a 3-5 record, which is a great sight after starting the season 0-4. On the second half of a back-to-back set, it’s possible that some of these veterans will rest, but the Heat aren’t really in a position where they can be stingy right now.
Golden State has also bounced back after a rough start, going from 0-3 to 5-3. Yaxel Lendeborg is averaging 21.5 PPG, 7 RPG, and 3.9 APG while shooting 50% from the field and 40% from deep. His ROTY campaign is already rolling, trailing only the Grizzlies’ Cameron Boozer. Lendeborg bombed the Clippers for six triples and 37 points on Sunday, showcasing his offensive arsenal. He’s definitely benefitting from the spacing that Curry is providing him.
Heat at Warriors pick, best bet
Curry could absolutely shred this perimeter defense. Miami is allowing 17.1 made threes per game and 40.5% shooting from beyond the arc, both worst in the NBA. There’s room for opponent shooting to cool over a larger sample, but the Heat are praying for a regression to the mean against the wrong guy. The Chef is averaging 30.0 PPG and shooting 42.9% from deep through six appearances.
Curry’s off-ball movement will give the Heat fits. Curry can give up the ball, relocate, and force another defensive decision before the possession ends. We’ve seen it over and over and over again when he plays the two-man game with Draymond Green, dumping it off before slipping through teammates and multiple screens to get open again. Miami’s guards have to navigate these screens while their bigs decide how far to leave the paint. Show too little help, and Curry ends up with a little too much room on the outside. Commit two defenders, and Draymond Green forces the issue, attacking the 4 on 3.
It’s also extremely unlikely Thompson repeats his heroics from last night. While Thompson does get hot like nobody else in the league can, it would be disingenuous to ignore the fact that Klay’s first five games of the season were more than forgettable, with 7.8 PPG on 31.7% shooting from the field. I’m willing to bet against Klay staying hot tonight, which makes it tough for Miami to keep the score close tonight against an equally hot Stephen Curry.
Miami’s size advantage is nice, especially given the Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis, but it just looks like a bad matchup, given how poorly Miami is defending the perimeter. And because of the matchup and the resting advantage, it feels safe to lay the points with the Dubs tonight.
