It’s our first Best Bets article in June, which means it’s a great time to recap where we stand for the season as a whole. Through two full months we’re 23-12 (+10.5u) on article plays. That’s a 65.7% hit rate — essentially making us the Baltimore Orioles of DK Sportsbook. It’s not quite the Yankees, but we’ll take it.
Here’s hoping we avoid being the White Sox on Monday’s slate.
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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels
Under 8.5 (-115)
This might just turn into a love letter for Matt Waldron, who is almost single-handedly keeping the knuckleball alive in MLB. The 27-year-old didn’t have the best start to 2024, yet he’s been phenomenal in his last three outings, pitching to a 1.53 ERA and a 1.16 FIP with a massive 34.7% strikeout rate. It’s not as if it’s been a soft schedule, either. That stretch includes a game in Atlanta against the Braves and an appearance at Great American Ball Park. Tonight’s matchup isn’t nearly as daunting, with the Angels in possession of an 83 wRC+ across the past two weeks — the fourth-lowest mark in all of baseball. Waldron should be able to do his part and keep Los Angeles off the scoreboard.
On the other side, Tyler Anderson has also been quite good this season, though his success does strain credulity. Anderson enters play on Monday with a 2.47 ERA. That’s the 10th-best figure among qualified pitchers, yet it’s two full runs lower than all of the left-hander’s ERA estimators. Still, Anderson’s only surrendered more than three opponent runs in one of his 11 starts in 2024. He’s been incredibly consistent. It’s worth noting that the Padres are a very different team when facing a southpaw, too. San Diego’s 120 wRC+ versus RHPs leads all National League teams. That wRC+ drops to 91 against lefties with a .116 ISO that is the fourth-worst mark in MLB. Regression is coming for Anderson, but it doesn’t have to be this evening.
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Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers
Nathan Eovaldi Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)
I’m perplexed by this prop. It almost seems too easy. The Rangers have an entire rotation on their IL at the moment, so they’re operating under a certain amount of desperation when it comes to pitching. That’s how a 34-year-old Eovaldi comes off the injured list last week after a month-long absence and starts a game without having gone on a rehab assignment. Predictably, the RHP lasted just three innings, facing 14 hitters and throwing 37 pitches. I can’t imagine his leash will be much longer on Monday.
Obviously, there’s a chance that this goes sideways. Eovaldi is an extremely accomplished pitcher who is currently rocking a career-high 14.1% swinging strike rate. The Tigers have the league’s eighth-highest strikeout rate at 23.4%. Yet it feels like Eovaldi won’t be pitching past the fourth inning this evening. If Detroit can manage to only strike out once per frame, we’re golden. At plus-money, I’ll take that chance every time.
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