A short slate of baseball begins tonight at 6:40 p.m. ET. I’ll give a couple bets I’m looking toward on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
The Pick: Philadelphia Phillies team total over 4.5 runs -105
Betting the over on the Phillies team total has been a damn wagon this season. Coming into today, they have an over record of 30-14, which would have you up over 14 units. Not only have they been the most profitable team total over, it’s almost triple any other team. Next in line would be the Guardians, which you’d be up 5.9 units. So, it’s very fair to say that betting the over on the Phillies team total has been the move lately.
Now, I’m not telling you to blindly do this every night. What am I telling you, is that tonight would be a good time to do it. They’ll be facing Jose Quintana, who is having a really rough go of it this season. Through 41.1 innings, Quintana has a 5.44 ERA with an xERA of 6.20. His numbers get even worse on the road, where through 18.2 innings he has an 8.20 ERA with a .393 wOBA. Quintana has three pitches that he focuses on primarily, a sinker, a fastball and a changeup. The Phillies lineup, dating back to last season, have performed well against all of these when thrown by a lefty. Combined against the sinker, they have a .378 wOBA, a .358 wOBA against the fastball and a .372 wOBA against the changeup. I’d expect this team total to go 31-14 after tonight.
Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros
The Pick: Athletics team total over 3.5 runs -110
I think the perception of the A’s is still that they’re a bad team. They’re a bad franchise. The team on the field, has been a different story. You’ll likely be surprised to know that this team, the “joke” of the league, is currently second in runs scored during the month of May. They’re averaging 5.4 runs per game and are in a good spot tonight against Cristian Javier. It’s been a glaring start for Javier, who has seen a big drop in his strikeouts and an increase in his walks. It’s still early, but Javier was averaging almost a strikeout per inning last year (8.8) and currently is at just 6.5. His walks still at 3.4 last year but almost 5.5 this year. When Javier is putting men on base, it’s becoming a big issue for him. Opposing hitter has a .343 wOBA against him with men on base and a .417 wOBA with men on scoring position. Give me a poor start for Javier and the A’s going over 3.5 runs.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
