The Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins both find themselves in similar spots in their respective division races as both begin their series in Houston either six or 6.5 games out of first place in their division and in need of a win on Friday.
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros (-108, 8)
The Twins look to Pablo Lopez for the pitching start, who enters in a funk with three runs or more allowed in each of his past three starts and a combined 13 runs allowed in his past two starts.
Lopez has pitched better than the surface level numbers of a 4-5 record with a 5.25 ERA with a 3.81 fielding independent with 10.4 strikeouts to 1.5 walkers per nine innings.
Where Lopez has been hurt is via the home run, allowing 1.7 home runs per nine innings and faces an Astros lineup that is seventh in the league in total runs per game at home with over 4.9 runs per game while their 1.45 home runs per game at home is fourth in the league.
The Twins counter with an offense that ranks third in road scoring with 5.1 runs per game but have their work cut out for them with the Astros starting Ronel Blanco on the mound.
Blanco enters Friday with a 1.99 ERA that looks to be due in for some regression with a 3.96 fielding independent with 8.4 strikeouts to 3.7 walks per nine innings.
Though the Astros bullpen entered Thursday ranked 11th in bullpen ERA this season, over the past 30 days their 2.32 bullpen ERA is second in the league while the Twins have a 5.20 bullpen ERA the past 30 days, which ranks 26th in the league while the team is 14th in bullpen ERA overall this season.
With the Astros bullpen performing better of late and the Twins’ road run production appearing a bit lucky with the team just 20th in the league in on-base percentage, the Astros will take game one of this series.
The Play: Astros -108
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