I honestly don’t know where to begin with this nonsense.
Let’s start simple: Felix Hernandez not getting into the Hall of Fame on his first shot is ridiculous. There is only one person who was unquestionably more deserving than the King in this group of candidates, and it was his teammate.
Now, I don’t want to go knocking down the other guy who got in. Ichiro should have been unanimous. Billy Wagner had electric stuff before everyone seemed to throw gas. CC Sabathia had longevity, playoff success and the right combination of All-Star recognition and a Cy Young.
All that said, Sabathia should not have obliterated Hernandez in the polls.
Side-by-Side vs. CC
Sabathia got a ring and was named ALCS MVP en route to that 2009 Yankees title. (Yes, the Yankees have, in fact, won a World Series this century.) Hernandez never pitched in the postseason. That’s absolutely something Sabathia should be rewarded for when it comes to voting.
But is that something Hernandez should be punished for? It sure feels like that’s how voters view it when we see the King only on 20.6% of submitted ballots while Sabathia was on 86.8%.
Withholding names for a moment, here’s a look at some of Hernandez vs. Sabathia’s regular season numbers and accolades side-by-side:
Player A
- 19-year career
- 6-time All-Star
- 1 Cy Young
- 5-time top-five in Cy Young voting
- Career 3.74 ERA
- 3,093 career strikeouts and a career 7.8 K/9
Player B
- 15-year career
- 6-time All-Star
- 1 Cy Young*
- 4-time top-five in Cy Young voting
- Career 3.42 ERA
- 2,542 career strikeouts and a career 8.3 K/9
(*Pitcher was not named an All-Star in the year he won the Cy Young.)
Where Player A has one edge, Player B has another. Most of their other numbers paint a similar picture. Where things deviate is wins. (Same can be said of WAR, but full disclosure, I have no use for WAR. Never have.)
On top of being a member of the 3,000 strikeout club, Player A — Sabathia — also had 251 wins. Hernandez only finished with 169. But, Hernandez was supposed to mark the start of the change in mindset toward wins. He is where that conversation gained momentum because of just how dominant he was, despite the Mariners not winning.
Peak vs. Longevity?
With Sabathia lasting four more years than Hernandez — and logging almost 850 more innings — this feels like a prime example of the “Peak vs. Longevity” debate.
Sabathia’s six All-Star selections were spread out over 10 years. Hernandez’s six nods came over seven — and the one year he didn’t win in that span was when he won his Cy Young. ERA is not the end-all-be-all, but Hernandez had a 2.83 ERA in that stretch while Sabatha had a 3.34 during his. If you like advanced analytics more, FIP paints a similar picture: 3.43 for Sabathia and 2.99 for Hernandez.
Sabathia was better following his final All-Star selection, posting a 4.33 ERA during that seven-season span. Hernandez had a 4.89 ERA in the four years that followed his final selection. But as much as Sabathia was more effective once he passed his prime, it’s hard to imagine that was a driving force in him being on 60% more of the Hall of Fame ballots than Hernandez.
This isn’t the only odd case
Chase Utley vs. Dustin Pedroia is a strange one. Whether or not I’d vote for either is a separate matter, but Utley doing this much better than Pedroia does not track.
Quite frankly, I have mixed feelings about Andruw Jones doing so much better than Torii Hunter, too.
Hernandez will have his day
I do believe this is one of those ridiculous instances where Hernandez has been kept off ballots because some voters don’t think he’s “first-ballot-worthy.” Quite frankly, if being a first-ballot Hall of Fame selection was actually a thing, Ichiro would be the only guy in this class worthy of that. He was on a level beyond anyone else in this class. But I don’t subscribe to that thinking.
If you deserve to get in at some point, you should be on voters’ ballots from Day 1 — unless, somehow, there are 10 players who genuinely deserve it over you. That was not the case with Hernandez this year.
But for all the frustration I’ve expressed about the voting, Hernandez’s Hall of Fame ballot debut is at least promising. Look no further than Wagner. He only got 10% of the votes on his first ballot, and now he’s received his call to the Hall of Fame.
