This week is Rivals Week in the NBA, which seeks to pit historic rivals against each other for high-profile battles on the hardwood to add some spice to a midseason stretch that might otherwise get a bit stale.
Clearly, the intention of scheduling the Philadelphia 76ers to travel to the Mile High City to take on the Denver Nuggets was so 2022-23 MVP Joel Embiid could take on the man who beat him to the award three times, Nikola Jokić. However, as has often been the case throughout his career, Embiid is not available for tonight’s game, sidelined with swelling in his left knee. Embiid has appeared in just 446 of 882 (50.6%) of possible games throughout his career.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Nuggets are 12.5-point favorites (-800 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 231. Meanwhile, the 76ers are +550 on the Moneyline.
Betting Splits
The public came in heavily on Denver for this game, as Jokić’s squad attracted 84% of the bets and 70% of the handle, although both numbers are lower than the Nuggets’ implied 85% chance of victory. After a rocky start to the season, Denver has steadied the ship, winning seven of its past 10 games to climb to third place in the Western Conference and a comfortable two-game lead over the LA Clippers for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. By contrast, Philadelphia, which has lost each of its last six games, is 2.5 games behind the Chicago Bulls for the final play-in spot.
Bettors are far more evenly-split when it comes to the spread, however. 55% of the bets have come in on the Nuggets to cover the 13.5-point spread, while big money bettors are backing the 76ers, who have attracted 60% of the handle. This season, Denver is 21-20-1 against the spread, while Philadelphia has severely underperformed expectations. The 76ers’ 14-27 record against the spread is the worst in basketball. Philadelphia has covered the spread in each of its last four games against the Nuggets, although Embiid was active for two of those games.
There is a huge disparity in the betting splits when it comes to the total in this battle between elite offense and solid defense. While a small majority (51%) of bettors are fading the teams’ offenses, a whopping 77% of the handle has come in on the game to go over 230.5 points. Big-money bettors are clearly high on Denver’s offense, which has scored the third-most points in basketball and allowed the eighth-most. Meanwhile, the 76ers have scored the fourth-fewest points in the league and allowed the 11th-fewest. Overall, the over is 25-16-1 in Nuggets games and 21-19-1 in Philadelphia’s games.
Most Popular Player Props
Here are the top five most-bet player props for Wednesday’s game:
- Tyrese Maxey 25+ Points (-280)
- Jamal Murray 1st Points Scorer (+700)
- Nikola Jokic Triple-Double (+110)
- Tyrese Maxey U3.5 Three-Pointers Made (-140)
- Paul George 1st Points Scorer (+550)
The two most notable bets here are the long shots: Jamal Murray and Paul George to score the game’s first points, especially given that each of Murray and George are their team’s second options, although George would be the third option if Embiid were healthy. George has led the 76ers in first-quarter usage rate over the last eight games with Embiid sidelined, posting a 28.9% usage rate and dropping 4.5 points in the opening frame across that span. Meanwhile, Murray has averaged 5.1 points and a 23.2% usage rate in the first quarter so far this season.
The public is also backing the reigning MVP to do MVP things. This season, Jokić is averaging an incredible 30.1 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 9.9 assists per game, and he has a league-leading 18 triple-doubles so far this season, including four of his last five games. Recently, he and Russell Westbrook became the first pair of teammates to each record a triple-double multiple times in the same game in the same season. Philadelphia is an easy opponent to stuff the stat sheet against, too; since Embiid’s most recent game, the 76ers have allowed the second-most assists to opposing players.
Finally, two of the most frequent bets figure that Philadelphia’s No. 1 option will do plenty of damage, but that he’ll limit it to the areas inside the arc. Across the team’s last eight games, Maxey has appeared in seven and dropped at least 25 points each time, posting a massive 33.9% usage rate across that stretch. However, with the increased responsibility has come a shooting slump; across that stretch, he’s made just 31.6% of his three-point attempts and and made more than three triples just twice. This season, Denver has allowed the 15th-fewest made three-pointers per game.
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