After 18 games combined over the last two nights, Thursday’s NBA slate is small but mighty. There are only five games on offer, but there are some pretty good ones, headlined by another battle between the tops of the East and the West, as the 34-5 Cleveland Cavaliers take on the 33-6 Oklahoma City Thunder. Here are my top bets for Thursday’s games at DraftKings Sportsbook, with one bet from each contest.
First, let’s take a look at the full slate:
- Phoenix Suns at Washington Wizards, 7 p.m. EST
- Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons, 7 p.m. EST
- Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:30 p.m. EST
- Houston Rockets at Sacramento Kings, 10 p.m. EST
- LA Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers, 10 p.m. EST
Devin Booker 30+ Points (+110)
After a short stretch in which they seemed merely bad, not historically bad, the Wizards are back to their losing ways. Washington has dropped its last seven games, nine of its last 10, and has a net rating of negative-13.9 across that span. The Wizards have allowed 121.6 points per 100 possessions in those 10 games, the worst rate in the league, and throughout the season, they’ve allowed the most points, most rebounds, and fourth-most assists per game to opponents. To make matters worse, their starting guards are notorious traffic cone Jordan Poole and rookie Bub Carrington.
Booker has been on quite the tear in recent weeks, dropping 39, 20, 34, 30, and 35 points in his last five games, although those matchups were against mediocre defenses in the Charlotte Hornets (twice), the Atlanta Hawks (twice), and the Utah Jazz. I’m not sure if the Suns are for real — they’ve looked better since relegating Bradley Beal to the bench, winning four of six games — but that won’t matter tonight against a terrible Washington unit. Phoenix hasn’t blown anyone out this entire season, so Booker should get enough minutes to enjoy his fourth-straight 30-point game.
Indiana Pacers +2.5 (-112)
Should I be more of a believer in the Pistons after they’ve won 10 of their last 12 games, including a road win over the New York Knicks, especially when Cade Cunningham is playing at an All-NBA level? Maybe, but I’m a believer in the Pacers’ improved form as well. Indiana has won six of its last seven games, with the only loss — understandably — being to the Cavaliers.
Indiana has covered the spread 55.0% of the time as the underdog, and I think they’ll do so again tonight. The suspension to Bennedict Mathurin — a pretty solid microwave scorer and rebounder throughout his entire career — will hurt, but Tyrese Haliburton, if he plays, has been in his best form of the season, as has Pascal Siakam. The Pacers might also welcome back Aaron Nesmith, who suffered an ankle injury on November 1 and is officially listed as questionable for tonight’s action.
Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline (-130)
I’m so excited for tonight’s game, especially after the absolute show that both teams put on last Wednesday. Both of these teams are historically good, and I truly wouldn’t be surprised if they each win more than 70 games and meet in the NBA Finals. Cleveland could win tonight, and I wouldn’t be remotely surprised, especially if Donovan Mitchell (who shot three-for-16 in the first matchup) plays even close to his All-NBA standards.
Are the Cavs really good enough to sweep the season series with the Thunder, though? The advanced numbers all slightly favor Oklahoma City, which has the second-best net rating in NBA history (Cleveland is 10th). In its last 15 games, the Thunder have lost just once — to the Cavaliers — outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 14.1 points per 100 possessions. My bet on Oklahoma City here is basically just regression to the mean; in a battle between two teams this incredible, home court advantage can make all the difference.
Sacramento Kings-Houston Rockets U225.5 (-110)
The good times continue rolling in Sacramento, even after a 130-115 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday night. Since firing Mike Brown, the Kings are 7-2 and have the league’s fifth-best net rating across that span, and if you’re wondering, Doug Christie currently has the eighth-shortest odds for Coach of the Year despite coaching just nine games. Sacramento seems to have figured it out defensively — its 111.8 defensive rating under Christie ranks 11th — and while the Rockets’ defense has struggled in recent weeks, they still have the third-best defensive rating throughout the season as a whole.
Both Houston and the Kings have seen the over hit in four of their last five games, and recent form is definitely important in the NBA, but I’m a believer in both of these defenses. All-Defense game-wrecker Amen Thompson has been playing the best basketball of his career, and both teams’ top defensive players are relatively healthy. If wing Tari Eason — who’s officially listed as questionable — can return after a 13-game absence due to a leg injury, the Rockets’ defense would improve even more, as Eason is one of the league’s better perimeter defenders.
Norman Powell O25.5 Points (+105)
If I had an NBA Awards bracket, Powell — a 10-year journeyman who inexplicably jumped from 13.9 to 23.7 points per game while recording career-best efficiency — would win Most Improved Player. He is no longer just a microwave scorer and Sixth Man of the Year candidate. Instead, he’s an integral piece of a Clippers team that is fifth in the Western Conference.
His numbers have dipped slightly since Kawhi Leonard’s return from injury, as he has scored 23.0 points per game with Fun Guy in the lineup and 23.8 without him. However, he scored 30 points in just 28 minutes in a blowout loss to Denver while Leonard was back in Los Angeles on January 8. He’s put up 55-49-80 splits in his last five games, so it’s not like he’s slumping, either. With Leonard resting tonight, expect his usage to rise back to its pre-Kawhi levels, which should result in plenty of points against a Trail Blazers unit that has the third-worst defensive rating in basketball and starts a pair of horrific defenders — Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons — in the backcourt
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
