I don’t feel like doing an intro today, so let’s get into what I like for tonight on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros
The Pick: Braves team total over 4.5 runs -125
I saw that Hunter Brown was pitching for the Astros tonight and automatically assumed the Braves team total was going to be 5.5. NOPE! It’s at 4.5 at -125. I was honestly shocked. Brown has not looked like a major league caliber pitcher for MONTHS. It’s incredible that the Astros keep running him out every five days. For starters, he has a lovely 16.43 ERA on the season. You may say, ok Steve, but what’s the xERA? I say, “well it’s 8.71.” You chuckle and place the bet.
The issues for Brown date all the way back to the second-half of last season. Since the All-Star Break to now, Brown has a 7.66 ERA with a .409 wOBA, a 6.12 FIP and a 2.5 HR/9. He’s been downright abysmal. The Braves offense continues to roll and are averaging 5.6 runs over the last week. They’ve been a bit annoying with the number of men they’re standing on base lately, but this is nonetheless still an excellent spot against Brown. He’s yet to pitch more than 4 innings in his three starts and has allowed 14 runs over that span.
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
The Pick: Garrett Whitlock under 16.5 outs recorded -110
16.5 outs recorded feels a bit high for someone that hasn’t done that yet in three starts. Whitlock hasn’t pitched more than 5 innings in three starts, logging 5.0, 4.1, 5.0 against the Orioles, Angels and Mariners. Tonight, he’ll face a good hitting club in the Guardians that should give him some trouble. Whitlock is due for some regression as well, indicated by a nice 1.26 ERA but an xERA of 4.25. As many of the Red Sox starters have done, Whitlock has ditched his fastball and is now throwing a changeup and sinker as his primary pitches. The Guardians are hitting .268 (xBA of .278) against the changeup and .317 (xBA of .304) against the sinker.
Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox
The Pick: Royals run line -1.5 -110
I have a feeling the run line bet against the White Sox is going to be a very popular bet to back this season. I mean, this team is 2-14 on the season and have already been shutout six times. Six god damn times. That’s already 37% of the season played. The White Sox are 7-9 on the run line while the Royals are one of the best in the league at 11-6. The White Sox are calling up a rookie to make his debut, Jonathan Cannon. He’s exhibited good command but he projects to be a back end starter at the major league level. The Royals have been night and day when it comes to offense, combing for just three runs over the last two games but 12 in the two games prior. Nonetheless, on the road against the White Sox, I like them to cover this run line at -1.5.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
