The Carolina Panthers finished the 2022 season with a 7-10 record after Matt Rhule was fired after starting 1-4. A rebuild was needed and expected, but there was hope that the franchise could find a quarterback and head coach combo to turn around the offense while the defense still had all of its major pieces. That didn’t happen, as Bryce Young, Frank Reich, and the Panthers went 2-15 while undergoing yet another head coaching search.
Carolina isn’t projected to have a very great season in 2024, with an established win total line of over/under 4.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. The over is installed at -140, while the under is +120. The Panthers — like much of the NFL — are currently going through their OTAs, and while there are still a few months until they play their first game, let’s look at why now is the time to take the over on their win total.
2023
Before looking forward, let’s take a look back. Sure, Carolina finished with the worst record in the league, which was only made worse by not owning their first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. But, was it a situation where the team was on the wrong side of fourth-quarter comebacks, or was this a historically bad team from top to bottom?
The season started rocky, as the Panthers lost to their division rival, the Atlanta Falcons, in Week 1. It was a 14-point loss accentuated by the fact that Young threw two interceptions to Jessie Bates on what was later determined to be the exact same progression for both plays. Carolina lost its home opener by three points to the New Orleans Saints in Week 2. Young didn’t play in Week 3, and backup QB Andy Dalton nearly pulled off a comeback, getting the score to 22-20 in the fourth, but they lost 37-27.
In Week 4 the Panthers were up on the Minnesota Vikings 13-7 with four minutes to go in the game, but a 51-yard scoop six and a Justin Jefferson touchdown as time expired flipped the script, and they lost 21-13. Carolina was blown out by the Detroit Lions and Miami Dolphins before their much-needed bye week in Week 7. This led to the team’s first win of the season as Young took down fellow rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans, 15-13. The Panthers should have picked up their second win of the season over Tyson Bagent and the Chicago Bears in Week 10, but instead, they had an embarrassing three-point loss to move to 1-7.
The remainder of the season saw them pick up a two-point, 9-7 victory over Atlanta in Week 15, taking losses every other week. When the dust settled on the season, Carolina ranked second to last for point differential (-10.6) only beating out the Washington Commanders (-11.1). The Panthers were tied with the New England Patriots for averaging the fewest points on offense (13.9).
Over the past five years, seven teams have finished in the bottom five of scoring differential more than once, including Carolina in 2019 and then in 2023. Only three of the teams have ranked in the bottom five in back-to-back years, so the recent history at least favors the Panthers not to finish in the bottom five again in 2024.
Carolina’s offense is hoping the only way that they can go is up this season. They averaged just 13.9 points per game, their second-lowest average in franchise history. The Panthers scored 12.3 points per game in the 2010 season. This gave them the first overall pick in the draft, which they used to select Cam Newton. They averaged 25.4 the next season, and while Young is no Newton in his rookie year, bouncing back toward the norm and scoring six or seven more points per game could greatly contribute to the team racking up at least five wins.
New Coach, Who Dis?
For the third straight season, Carolina will have a new head coach. If you throw in interim head coaches, Dave Canales will be the fifth head coach in three seasons. Reich was fired after the team’s Week 12 17-10 loss to the Tennessee Titans. It moved the Panthers to 1-10 on the year, but the switch to interim head coach Chris Tabor didn’t provide a spark, and Young even said having multiple play-calling voices throughout the season made it difficult to adjust.
Carolina focused on quarterback growth and went with Canales, who most recently spent last season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He has become known as a quarterback fixer, and it started with his work in Seattle. Canales served as the Seahawks’ quarterbacks coach from 2018-2019 and again in 2022. Geno Smith was the backup to Russell Wilson in 2020 and 2021 but won the quarterback job over Drew Lock in 2022 once Wilson was traded. He hadn’t been a starter since 2014, when he played 14 games with the New York Jets and finished with 2,525 yards, 13 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Smith finished with 4,282 yards, 30 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 2022 while being named the Comeback Player of the Year and selected for his first Pro Bowl. For what it is worth, he played in 15 games last season post-Canales and took a slight step back with 3,624 yards, 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions.
From this success, Canales was poached by Tampa Bay ahead of last season. Their quarterback, Tom Brady, had retired — again — and the Buccaneers’ QB room consisted of Kyle Trask and John Wolford before they signed free agent Baker Mayfield. The former No. 1 pick spent the first part of the 2022 season with Carolina before being released in December. He signed with the Los Angeles Rams and led a huge fourth-quarter comeback, giving fans hope, but he only won one more game to close out the season. Mayfield signed with Tampa Bay and proceeded to have the best season of his career with 4,044 yards, 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. This earned him a three-year, $100 million contract, and again a lot of credit was given to Canales.
Can the new Carolina head coach have lightning strike for the third time with Young? He has already praised his new quarterback’s accuracy during OTAs. Canales has also said that they are limiting their number of formations so that Young can focus on his progressions and footwork, and he has already seen improvement in the second-year QB. Yes, it is just OTAs, so the reports and comments should be taken with a grain of salt. Still, with Canales’ recent track record, if Young can finish ranked even in the low 20s in terms of Total QBR (29th out of 30 qualified QBs last year), completion percentage (59.8% last season) and touchdown passes (11 last season, 28th most in NFL), that should help the team pick up some extra wins.
While Panthers coach Dave Canales said the offense was rusty to start voluntary OTAs he said quarterback Bryce Young has been ‘‘fantastic’’ picking up the offense. pic.twitter.com/qRWrMCDbok
— David Newton (@DNewtonespn) May 20, 2024
2024 Offseason
When you look at the players who are no longer with the Panthers this season, you begin to wonder if they will even win a game. Brian Burns, Jeremy Chinn, Frankie Luvu, Donte Jackson, Vonn Bell, Hayden Hurst, Bradley Bozeman, C.J. Henderson and D.J. Chark lead a list of 17 players that will all be suiting up for a different team next year after spending 2023 with the Panthers.
Luckily, Carolina has made some solid moves in an effort to bring in replacements. The front office traded for former Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson and signed DT A’Shawn Robinson, EDGE Jadeveon Clowney, RG Robert Hunt, CB Dane Jackson, EDGE D.J. Wonnum and S Jordan Fuller in free agency. The Panthers traded back into the first round in the 2024 NFL Draft to select WR Xavier Legette. Carolina then added RB Jonathan Brooks in the second, LB Trevin Wallace in the third, and Texas TE Ja’Tavion Sanders in the fourth. There’s a lot to develop here, but it doesn’t feel like the roster is taking a step back.
2024 Schedule with predictions
Week 1 — @ New Orleans Saints — L
Week 2 — vs. Los Angeles Chargers — L
Week 3 — @ Las Vegas Raiders — W
Week 4 — vs. Cincinnati Bengals — L
Week 5 — @ Chicago Bears — L
Week 6 — vs. Atlanta Falcons — L
Week 7 — @ Washington Commanders — W
Week 8 — @ Denver Broncos — L
Week 9 — vs. New Orleans Saints — W
Week 10 — vs. New York Giants (Germany) — W
Week 11 — BYE WEEK
Week 12 — vs. Kansas City Chiefs — L
Week 13 — vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — W
Week 14 — @ Philadelphia Eagles — L
Week 15 — vs. Dallas Cowboys — L
Week 16 — vs. Arizona Cardinals — W
Week 17 — @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers — L
Week 18 — @ Atlanta Falcons — L (unless ATL resting players locked into 4-seed)
Projected record: 6-11
I honestly think that the Panthers could win in Week 1 on the road against New Orleans, but that’s mainly due to the fact that I don’t have much faith in Derek Carr under center. If Young looks good against the Saints’ defense, though, that would help inspire hope for the rest of the season. Even in a rebuilding year with a new head coach, new receiving corps and being on the road, I still think that Justin Herbert can beat the Panthers in Week 2.
Carolina should get into the win column in Week 3. Antonio Pierce is a solid head coach, but I think the team’s decision to end its quarterback upgrades at bringing in Gardner Minshew wasn’t the right decision. Barring Joe Burrow having his yearly injury, the Bengals should beat the Panthers in Week 4. I legitimately struggled to pick Week 5 because I really think that Carolina can beat Chicago. We don’t know how well Caleb Williams will transition to the NFL, and recent years suggest rookies will struggle early. For now, I’m picking the Bears, but a slow start and an injury or two and I think Carolina could win.
Week 6-10 are all winnable games for the Panthers. I think they drop both games this season to the Atlanta Falcons, barring the Falcons resting players after being locked into a playoff spot in Week 18. Carolina should be able to beat Washington and could end up getting a road win against Denver. I do think they beat the Saints in the rematch and then take the neutral-site international game over a bad New York Giants team.
4-6 at the bye week feels like a fever dream for a team that won two games last season. The second half of the season is brutal for Carolina as they start with the back-to-back Super Bowl champion Chiefs. I think Canales gets a win over his former team in Week 13 at home as Mayfield takes a step back similar to Smith’s in Seattle after Canales left. Barring another end-of-season losing streak, Philly should beat Carolina in Week 14, as should the Cowboys in Week 15. I have Carolina beating the Cardinals at home but then losing on the road to Tampa. This prop bet could easily come down to Week 18, and for now, I am saying the Panthers lose to Atlanta. I do think the Falcons will win the NFC South this year, so if they are locked into a top-four seed with no room for improvement ahead of the playoffs, their resting players could be the fifth win needed for this bet.