There are some fantastic games on the Week 5 NFL slate. With plenty of ways to get in on the action on DraftKings Sportsbook, this is a look at my best bets for NFL Week 5.
NFL Week 5 Best Bets: Expert Picks, Predictions and Analysis
Seahawks -3 vs. 49ers (-110)
This is a great matchup between two NFC West contenders. The defending Super Bowl champions are hosting the 49ers, who have the best offense in the NFL so far this season. San Francisco leads the league in offensive EPA/play and offensive success rate. However, Seattle might have the answers to slow them down. Mike Macdonald did an incredible job against Kyle Shanahan’s offense last season. The 49ers combined to score just 26 points across the two regular-season matchups and the NFC Divisional Round game against the Seahawks last season, an average of just 8.7 PPG. The Seattle defense is excellent once again, ranking fourth in the NFL in defensive EPA/play. Macdonald should have a good game plan and keep the San Francisco offense in check.
Seattle should be able to score in this game. They have scored 30+ points each of the past three weeks. The San Francisco defense is also just stacking injuries, with Nick Bosa, James Thompson Jr., Marques Sigle and CJ West all expected to miss this week. Upton Stout is also questionable for this game. Sam Darnold should be able to move the ball through the air and get points on the board against the banged-up 49ers defense. The Seattle crowd should also be out in full force, giving the Seahawks their great home-field advantage. This is a prime spot for the defending champions to get a key divisional win.
Michael Wilson 75+ Receiving Yards (-114)
Michael Wilson is having a great start to this season. Last season, Wilson broke out with a 1,000-yard season. While he was second fiddle to tight end Trey McBride, he was the team’s top wide receiver. So far this season, Wilson has been Arizona’s leading receiver. While McBride has more receptions, Wilson has had more action downfield and leads the team in receiving yards. He ranks 14th in the NFL in receptions and 16th in receiving yards through the first month. Over his last two games, Wilson has combined for 18 catches for 184 yards and a touchdown. He should keep the momentum going in this game against the Lions.
Detroit has been dreadful in the secondary so far this season. The Lions rank 30th in defensive EPA/dropback and 31st in defensive dropback success rate. In Week 1, Chris Olave had 10 catches for 182 yards against the Lions. In Week 2, Dalton Kincaid had seven catches for 95 yards against the Lions. In Week 3, Garrett Wilson had 10 catches for 107 yards against the Lions. Last week, Tetairoa McMillan had 14 catches for 192 yards against Detroit.
Opposing WR1s have absolutely torched the Detroit secondary this season. Michael Wilson should keep his bright start to the season going and do the same in Week 5.
Six-Point Teaser: Browns +7.5 & Saints +8.5
The Browns should keep it close against the Jets on Sunday. The Jets are small favorites at home, but they are not built to blow teams out. They won convincingly against the Titans in Week 1, but Tennessee might be the worst team in the NFL so far this season. Since then, the Jets have lost three straight games. Even though they have played well in those four games, they play very conservatively on offense. The Jets almost play not to get blown out, with their methodical offense and tough defense. However, that also makes it tough for them to win by multiple scores, especially against a Browns team that is looking better every week. Cleveland should keep this game within a touchdown.
The Vikings are another team not built to blow teams out, and they should play a close game in New Orleans on Sunday. Minnesota has been excellent on defense, as Brian Flores’ teams always are. However, the offense has been much more inconsistent. Minnesota is averaging just over 15 points per game over their past three games. The Vikings are also not a dangerous running team, which is how you beat the Saints’ defense.
The Saints rank dead last in the NFL in defensive EPA/rush. However, New Orleans has faced the toughest group of opposing running backs possible through four weeks. They have had to try to slow down Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, Ashton Jeanty and Bijan Robinson. That is arguably the three best running backs in the NFL, and a rising star in Jeanty. Getting to face Aaron Jones will be a big relief for that New Orleans front. The Saints should keep Minnesota’s offense in check, and Tyler Shough will create enough to at least keep this game close, if not win it outright.
