Kicking off at 4:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, the Philadelphia Eagles will host the Green Bay Packers for the fourth game of Wild Card Weekend. These are two familiar opponents as they faced off in the opening week of the season- although this matchup took place in Brazil.
Both these teams entered the season with lofty postseason hopes and now have a chance to chase them as the playoffs kick off. Philadelphia comfortably won the NFC East with their 14-3 record this season while the Packers earned their way to the playoffs through a Wild Card opportunity after going 11-6. If they were in a few other divisions the Packers would be hosting a playoff game, but the 15-2 Lions and 14-3 Vikings made this the most difficult divisional race in the league.
With home-field advantage in mind, the Philadelphia Eagles enter this weekend as 4.5-point favorites. The Packers are +185 underdogs on the Moneyline and the game total is set at 45.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Philadelphia Eagles Wild Card Outlook
The Week 1 matchup between these two teams resulted in a 34-29 victory for the Eagles. However, both these teams are notably different than was the case at the early stages of the season.
Looking at the Green Bay Packers, they finished with an 11-6 record but lost the final two games of the season. The Packers rank eighth in the league in scoring, fifth in yardage, sixth in points allowed, and fifth in yards given up. Green Bay has forced the fourth-most turnovers in the league and has the sixth-best score percentage on offense.
Injuries could play a factor for the Packers this week. Wide receiver Christian Watson suffered a torn ACL in the Week 18 matchup which will keep him out for the season and likely the start of next year. Pro Bowl CB Jaire Alexander also joined him on injured reserve after suffering a PCL injury. In addition, Jordan Love is officially listed as questionable with the elbow injury he suffered in Week 18. This feels like mostly gamesmanship as the Packers presented his absence from the remainder of the game as nothing more than a precaution but he notably has not been seen throwing a football yet this week. The outlook for this game would certainly change if Love is unable to play or is limited in any capacity.
On the other side of the matchup, the Philadelphia Eagles have been one of the best teams in the NFL all season. They enter this matchup after going 12-1 since their Week 5 bye and with a 14-3 record overall. They rank second in the league in scoring, first in yards, seventh in points allowed, and eighth in yards given up. Their defense has shown some notable improvement as the season has progressed and hasve been among the best in the league over the final stretch of the season.
Philadelphia also has some injury concerns at the quarterback position. Jalen Hurts suffered a concussion in the first quarter of the Week 17 matchup with the Washington Commanders. This also is the only loss the Eagles had suffered since Week 4. Hurts missed the final two weeks of the season due to his concussion and remains in league protocol. There were some positive signs reported from practice today as Hurts returned to practice and threw the ball for the first time since exiting Week 17. The expectation is that Hurts will be available on Sunday but concussion protocol is more out of a player’s hands than most injuries.
Top Props to Consider
Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown (-120):
There is a case to be made that Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown is one of the best bets in all of sports. The Eagles quarterback’s dual-threat nature is what makes him so special. The tush-push opportunities steal the headlines but Hurts is also plenty capable of taking off on a scramble or designed run from a few yards out. Regardless of how it happens the fact of the matter is Hurts has 14 rushing touchdowns this year and has reached pay dirt with his legs in ten of the 15 games he has played this season. Even with Saquon Barkley on the roster and with 2,005 rushing yards to his name, the Pro Bowl quarterback leads the Eagles in rushing touchdowns. Hurts also was tied for second in the league in rushing touchdowns last year with 15 on the season and scoring on the ground in 11 of the 17 games.
The Packers defense is plenty respectable but Philadelphia’s offense is too talented to keep fully in check. As long as he is healthy, Hurts will be the number-one option to score whenever the Eagles are in the red zone. Expect Philadelphia to lean on what got them here and capitalize on the -120 odds.
Saquon Barkley 100+ Rushing Yards (-120):
The Eagles needed to make a change after collapsing in the second half of the season and being eliminated from the playoffs in the first round. Saquon Barkley has been exactly this and raised the ceiling of this Eagles team in a major way. Philadelphia has provided him with the best offensive line he has run behind and Barkley has showcased what a special talent he is by becoming just the ninth running back in NFL history to rush for over 2,000 yards in a season.
Green Bay ranks seventh in rushing yards allowed and third in net yards per rush attempt so it will not be an easy path. But Barkley ran for 109 yards and two touchdowns in the Week 1 matchup between these two teams. This 109-yard output is also only his ninth-highest rushing total in a game this year. The Eagles elected not to let Barkley chase the all-time rushing record in the final week of the season and instead rested him for the playoff run. Expect him to be unleashed in this matchup and for him to find at least one opportunity to break free for a lengthy touchdown run. Barkley has rushed for over 100 yards in 11 of the 16 games he has played this season and the Eagles will lean heavily on what got them to this point.
Jordan Love Under 226.5 Passing Yards (-110):
The injury concern adds another layer to this, but this is a matchup I don’t like for Jordan Love in general. While he threw for 260 yards in the Week 1 matchup, this was before the Eagles settled into Vic Fangio’s new system or made some notable personnel changes like plugging Cooper DeJean into the slot corner role. Overall, Love has averaged 225.9 passing yards per game while the Eagles have allowed an average of just 174.2 passing yards this year- the best mark in the league. Love has been held under 226.5 passing yards in eight of the 15 games he has played. He also has only eclipsed this number once over the final five weeks with the last time being in Week 15 against the Seahawks when he had 229 passing yards.
While wide receiver depth is a strength of Green Bay, the injury to Christian Watson shakes up their passing attack. Philadelphia has allowed the fewest passing yards per game this season and has played their best football down the stretch. The opposite is true of the Packers who have stumbled in with back-to-back losses and Love showing some signs of struggle. Ultimately, expect it to be difficult to move the ball and for the Packers to have more success on the ground than in the air. Count on Love to be held below 226.5 passing yards in his third career playoff game.
Eagles vs Packers Prediction
Green Bay made a statement this time last year by blowing out the Dallas Cowboys in the Wild Card Round. However, the outlook feels a bit different this year as they prepare for a different NFC East opponent. The Packers had momentum on their side last year. They climbed out of a 2-5 hole and won their final three games of the season to officially clinch their spot and build off this going into the playoffs. The opposite is true this season as the Packers have lost their final two games of the year including the Bears snapping an 11-game losing streak to the Packers to close the year.
The Eagles also approach this with the opposite outlook of last year. After starting last season 10-1, they dropped five of their final six games before the lifeless roster was eliminated in the Wild Card round by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Nick Sirianni managed to steady the ship this offseason, changing coordinators on both sides of the ball, and there has been a business-like approach from this football team from start to finish this season. They are one Jalen Hurts concussion away from finishing the year on a 13-game winning streak. With their quarterback expected to return to the field, so should their deep playoff hopes.
Momentum aside, the Eagles are 11-0 and have produced an average of 29.0 points in games that Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, Lane Johnson, and Saquon Barkley have started and finished. The growth of the Eagles’ defense has been the most notable storyline even beyond the production of Barkley. Going from 26th in yards allowed last year to first this season is the seventh-largest leap in NFL history. This also occurred while the combined age of the defensive unit was the youngest in the NFL and showed signs of improvement as the year progressed.
Expect Jordan Love to struggle against this Eagles defense and for Saquon Barkley to be able to break the game open for the Eagles. They are returning to full health and proper form at the right time and Philadelphia could make a statement to the rest of the league with a convincing win. I like the Eagles to get the outright victory and cover the -4.5 spread and will also take a chance on the alternate spread at -9.5 and +168 odds on DraftKings for the Eagles to make this a double-digit victory.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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