What a difference just a few seasons makes.
Four seasons ago, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were celebrating their first postseason appearance in 13 years, snapping the longest postseason drought in the NFC.
This year, Tampa Bay is celebrating its fifth consecutive postseason appearance, extending the longest postseason streak in the NFC.
The Buccaneers didn’t miss a beat after Tom Brady retired in 2022, as former first overall pick Baker Mayfield took over as the primary signal-caller and has produced the two finest seasons of his career. In 2024, Mayfield has completed a career-high 71.4% of his passes — the third-highest rate in football — for 4,500 yards (third-most in the league) and 41 touchdowns (tied for second). His 106.8 passer rating ranks fourth. He still has a turnover problem — his 16 interceptions led the league, as did his 13 fumbles — but with his dual-threat ability, he is capable of leading Tampa Bay to its third Super Bowl title.
Mayfield is hardly alone among playmakers on the Buccaneers’ roster.
Wide receiver Mike Evans tied legend Jerry Rice for the most consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons, amassing 74 catches, 1,004 yards, and 11 touchdowns despite missing three games with an injury. Wide receiver Jalen McMillan and tight end Cade Otton also stepped up in the absence of Chris Godwin, the former Pro Bowl receiver who went down with a dislocated ankle in Week 7. Rookie running back Bucky Irving was one of the surprises of the season, turning 254 touches into 1,514 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns. Irving finished his inaugural campaign as Pro Football Focus’ fourth-ranked running back.
Tampa Bay’s defense hasn’t been quite as good, but nose tackle Vita Vea had his most productive season yet, with 7.0 sacks and 10 tackles for a loss, earning his second career Pro Bowl nod. Former All-Pro linebacker Lavonte David added 5.5 sacks and 122 total tackles — good for 25th-most in the NFL — while providing important veteran leadership, serving as a team captain for the 11th season in a row. Meanwhile, while the secondary generally struggled, sixth-year cornerback Jamel Dean finished as PFF’s 16th-ranked cornerback.
Overall, the vibes surrounding the Buccaneers are very good going into the playoffs. Tampa Bay has won six of its last seven games, so it looks to be peaking at the right time.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Buccaneers have +2500 odds to win the Super Bowl, the eighth-shortest odds among the 14 playoff teams. Below, I’ve broken down their path to the Lombardi Trophy.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers Wild Card Outlook
Tampa Bay’s road will begin with a home game against the sixth-seeded Washington Commanders, arguably the most surprising team in the playoffs. Last year, the Commanders made the second overall pick in the draft, and the man they selected with that pick — former LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels — changed the course of the franchise. Much like the last quarterback that Washington selected No. 2 overall — Robert Griffin III in 2012 — Daniels dazzled NFL fans with his playmaking ability both as a thrower and a runner, earning a Pro Bowl nod and making the postseason well ahead of schedule.
Obviously, the Commanders’ chances of winning center around Daniels, who completed 69.0% of his passes for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns, and only nine interceptions while adding 891 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. But Washington has plenty of other playmakers on its roster, including running back Brian Robinson Jr., who ran for 799 yards and eight touchdowns, and wide receiver Terry McLaurin, who recently became the franchise record holder for touchdowns in a single season (13). The Commanders’ defense is anchored by cornerback Marshon Lattimore — a historical rival of Evans’ — and veteran middle linebacker Bobby Wagner.
What does it all mean for the Buccaneers?
I wrote a full preview for the game yesterday, so to cut right to the chase, I think Tampa Bay will win, 31-26.
Washington simply doesn’t have enough on defense to stop a high-powered Buccaneers offense that averaged 29.5 points per game, the fourth-highest in the NFL, especially not with Mayfield (73.0% completion percentage and 16 touchdowns in his past five games) in the hottest form of his career. The Commanders have really struggled against the run, allowing 2,337 yards on the ground so far this season — the third-highest total in the league — on 4.8 yards per carry (the third-best efficiency). That’s a bad recipe against Irving, whose 1,122 rushing yards ranked 10th in the NFL and 5.4 yards per carry ranked fifth. Washington also hasn’t been particularly great against the pass, allowing 11.4 yards per reception and 25 scores, and if Lattimore can’t make his return from a hamstring strain, the Commanders won’t be able to contain Evans.
Washington’s offense is no slouch, though, and could put a lot of pressure on a Tampa Bay defense that has been mediocre against opposing passers. Overall, the Commanders have put up 28.5 points per game, the fifth-highest total in the league. Daniels’ ability to extend plays with his legs could pose problems for a defense that allowed six rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks, worse than only the Dallas Cowboys and New York Jets. Veteran tight end Zach Ertz, who’s peaking at the right time with six touchdowns in his past seven games, will have a very exploitable matchup against a Buccaneers unit that is extremely thin at safety with Jordan Whitehead out and Mike Edwards and Antoine Winfield Jr. both questionable. If Daniels can enjoy a better playoff debut than Lamar Jackson and Andrew Luck — two recent highly-touted quarterbacks who struggled in their first postseason appearances — nobody should count Washington out.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Tampa Bay is a three-point favorite (-175 on the moneyline), and the point total is set to 50.5. Meanwhile, the Commanders are +145 on the moneyline.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Championship Chances
Assuming the Buccaneers can stave off Washington, the road will only get harder.
Because the NFL re-seeds after the first round to ensure that the highest-seeded teams play the lowest-seeded ones, Tampa Bay’s second playoff opponent hasn’t yet been determined. If the second-seeded Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) beat the seventh-seeded Green Bay Packers (11-6), the Buccaneers will travel to the City of Brotherly Love, while the first-seeded Detroit Lions (15-2) will host the winner of the matchup between the fourth-seeded Los Angeles Rams (10-7) and the fifth-seeded Minnesota Vikings (14-3). If the Packers pull off the upset, they would travel to Detroit in the second round and the Buccaneers would play the winner of the Rams-Vikings matchup at Raymond James Stadium.
Tampa Bay fans should probably be rooting for Green Bay to pull off the upset, because even while Minnesota has a high-powered passing offense (237.8 yards per game, sixth-most in the NFL), quarterback Sam Darnold has never appeared in the playoffs and would have to travel to a hostile environment in Central Florida. The Buccaneers could also face Los Angeles, which has a pretty bad secondary and little wide receiver depth beyond Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Meanwhile, while Tampa Bay’s strong rushing defense may be able to slow down Saquon Barkley, it would struggle to get anything going against an Eagles defense that excels against both the run and the pass. I’d give the Buccaneers the edge over the Rams, with the Vikings as slight favorites and the Eagles as significant favorites in any hypothetical matchup.
If Tampa Bay does make it to the NFC Championship Game, its most likely opponent would be Detroit, which has the most high-powered scoring offense (33.2 points per game) and the second-most potent passing game (263.2 yards per game) in the league. The Lions’ receiving tandem, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, would be extremely problematic for the Buccaneers secondary, and tight end Sam LaPorta is no slouch either. Although Detroit has struggled with injuries, especially on the defensive side of the ball, even Minnesota’s strong defense was unable to slow down its offense, and I doubt Tampa Bay could either. But the Lions secondary isn’t great, either, so if Mayfield continues his hot form and the Buccaneers’ receiving corps stays healthy, they could have a chance in a shootout.
Does Tampa Bay have what it takes to lift the Lombardi Trophy?
I don’t think so. The offense is certainly good enough, and so is the rushing defense. But given my concerns about the secondary, there are simply too many good quarterbacks that the Buccaneers will have to face in the deeper rounds of the NFC playoffs, plus Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, or Jackson in the Super Bowl. If Tampa Bay were to win it all, it wouldn’t be the most surprising title run in league history, but I wouldn’t count on it happening.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
