It’s finally January, which means after 18 long weeks of drama, heartbreak, and elation, the NFL Playoffs are finally here. Just 13 games remain in the 2024-25 NFL season, and only 14 teams still can dream of lifting the coveted Lombardi Trophy.
Of the 14 playoff participants, arguably the most unexpected was the Washington Commanders (+4500 to win the Super Bowl at DraftKings Sportsbook). Washington earned the No. 2 overall pick in last year’s draft after a miserable 4-13 season. Commanders fans might’ve had high expectations of 2023 Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels, but surely even the most optimistic didn’t foresee a 12-5 season and the sixth seed in the playoffs.
Washington’s opponent, the 10-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2500) are more regular January participants. Tampa Bay has the longest active postseason streak in the NFC, having made five consecutive playoff appearances. Vibes are good in Central Florida: veteran quarterback Baker Mayfield has enjoyed the best season of his career, wideout Mike Evans hit 1,000 receiving yards for the 11th straight season, and running back Bucky Irving has been a rookie sensation.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Buccaneers are three-point favorites, and the point total is set at 50.5. Let’s break down the Wild Card clash, with one of my favorite prop bets and a score prediction at the end.
Zach Ertz Anytime TD Scorer (+200)
Among the major reasons for the Commanders’ surprising season is tight end Zach Ertz, who bounced back from a rough two and half seasons with the Arizona Cardinals with a 66-catch, 654-yard, seven-touchdown performance. Ertz has been a valuable veteran leader in a young Washington offense and has posted the best success rate (63.7%) of his career. He’s also caught 72.5% of his targets, his highest rate since his 2018 Pro Bowl campaign.
While Ertz struggled to find the end zone early in the season, recording just one touchdown catch in his first 10 games, he has found his groove at the right time, scoring in five of his last seven appearances. His most recent score, a five-yard pass from backup quarterback Marcus Mariota early in the third quarter of the Commanders’ Week 18 win, jumpstarted Washington’s offense after a sluggish first half.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has struggled massively in aerial defense, especially against tight ends. The Buccaneers have given up 1,144 yards to opposing tight ends, the second-most in the league, in addition to five scores. Tampa Bay is thin at the safety position, and its depth only got worse when Jordan Whitehead was involved in a traffic accident prior to the team’s Week 18 game. With Whitehead expected to miss the postseason and both starting safeties, Antoine Winfield Jr. and Mike Edwards, questionable, the Buccaneers’ undermanned secondary will have its hands full with Ertz, Daniels, and wide receiver Terry McLaurin.
Score Prediction
Ultimately, while experience and momentum are important in the regular season, they are far more critical in the postseason, when the pressure is highest and players are the most fatigued.
While some players on Washington’s roster — especially Ertz — have playoff experience, McLaurin only has one postseason game under his belt and Daniels and running back Brian Robinson have none. It’s hard to predict how Daniels will do in his first postseason appearance, but plenty of talented signal-callers, including Lamar Jackson and Andrew Luck, have struggled in their first playoff games.
Meanwhile, for Tampa Bay, Mayfield has four playoff starts and veterans Evans and linebacker Lavonte David both have nine. Mayfield was stellar in the postseason last year, completing 62.3% of his passes for 686 yards, six touchdowns, and two picks for a 106.3 passer rating. He’s also been arguably the best quarterback in football over the last five weeks, throwing 16 touchdown passes and completing 73.0% of his attempts across that span.
Barring a startling decline from Daniels, the Commanders should be contenders for years to come, but it’s just too early, especially on defense. Washington has Pro Football Focus’ 29th-ranked defense overall, struggling especially against the run. I don’t expect that to change on Sunday against Irving, who has rushed for over 100 yards in three of his last six games, and Mayfield, whose improvisational ability has always been one of his greatest assets.
FINAL SCORE: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31, Washington Commanders 26
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