Although New Year’s confetti stopped falling five days ago, the fun is just starting for the LA Clippers. After missing the first two and a half months of the season with right knee inflammation, six-time All-NBA power forward Kawhi Leonard — a.k.a. Fun Guy — made his return in the Clippers’ 131-105 victory over the Atlanta Hawks on Saturday. Despite playing just 19 minutes, he hit his first three three-pointers and recorded 12 points, three rebounds, one assist, and one steal.
LA has been very good this season, even without Leonard. The Clippers are 20-15, tied with the Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Mavericks for the fifth seed in the Western Conference. LA is allowing just 108.3 points per 100 possessions, and now, it will add a two-time Defensive Player of the Year with career 50-39-86 shooting splits to its lineup.
Leonard will play his second game of the season tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who, like the Clippers, sit in the West’s Play-In Tournament picture at 17-17. Tip-off will be 8 p.m. ET at Target Center in Minneapolis.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, LA (+114) is a slight underdog and the point total is set to 214.5. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bets centered around Fun Guy.
Best Kawhi Leonard Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Kawhi Leonard 6+ First-Quarter Points (+150)
Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue hasn’t yet suggested how many minutes Leonard will play against the Timberwolves, but given that he played 19 minutes in the win over the Hawks, I wouldn’t expect him to play much more than 20 on Monday night either. Leonard went to the bench with eight minutes, 24 seconds remaining in the third quarter and, with LA holding a huge lead, never saw the court again. Given Lue’s rotation on Saturday, it’s fair to expect the bulk of Leonard’s minutes to come in the first quarter — he played just over seven minutes in the opening frame in his debut.
In 2023-24, Leonard averaged 7.0 points in the first quarter on 11.2 minutes of playing time per game while shooting a blistering 56.0% from the field and 51.1% from three-point range. Pro-rated to the 7.3 minutes he played on Saturday, an average performance would result in him scoring 4.56 points in the first quarter on Monday. However, his 32.4% usage rate on Saturday was higher than his career average and he only scored three points in the opening frame because he struggled from two-point range, and he’ll probably be willing to shoot since he won’t be conserving any energy for crunch time. With some regression — rather, improvement — to the mean, Leonard could easily put up six points in the opening quarter.
Kawhi Leonard O1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+150)
One of the biggest concerns about Leonard’s game before he entered the NBA in 2011 was his jump shot, as he shot just 25.0% from deep in his two seasons at San Diego State. But Leonard went from a bad shooter in college to a good shooter in his stints in San Antonio and Toronto to a great shooter with the Clippers. In 2023-24, he was just five made free throws away from joining the elite 50-40-90 club, and he has made at least two three-pointers per game in three of his four full seasons with LA.
Although Leonard is historically known as a midrange ace, five of his 11 attempts on Saturday were from beyond the arc, which would be by far the highest three-point attempt rate of his career. I doubt he’ll continue to take 45% of his shots from deep for the rest of the season, but while his knee is still less than 100% and he’s working his way back into game shape, firing away on catch-and-shoot attempts makes a lot more sense than banging in the post or slashing to the rim. Expect Leonard to play mostly away from the ball and let James Harden or Norman Powell find him for open looks.
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