The Titans don’t have much to play for in Week 18, but the offense has actually been a pretty good spot for running back production in the last few weeks despite their QB carousel. However, with Tyjae Spears (concussion) already out and Tony Pollard ($6,200) a game-time decision, there could be a huge opportunity in the Tennessee backfield at home against the Texans in Week 18. The three backs who would step up if Pollard sits are Julius Chestnut ($4,000), Joshua Kelley ($4,000) and Jabari Small ($4,000). Which one of the three minimum-salary players should you take a look at for DFS contests this week? Let’s break it down:
Tony Pollard’s potential availability
Last week, Pollard was expected to play through his ankle injury, but he was unable to play after coming down with an illness that kept him from traveling. This week, he has put in limited practices but still is expected to be a game-time decision, according to coach Brian Callahan.
Callahan said Tony Pollard wants to play and felt pretty good today. Likes to give guys the chance to earn incentives pic.twitter.com/Njx1ZH5p0c
— Cory Curtis (@CoryCurtis2) January 1, 2025
I broke down Pollard’s incentives along with some of my other favorite player props based on incentives on Friday. Pollard needs 83 rushing yards for $250K, and two rushing touchdowns for another $250K.
Based on what Callahan said and how close Pollard seemed to playing last week, it seems like he most likely will give it a go, but if he’s out, things will get very interesting.
A three-headed monster?
Normally, fantasy owners avoid timeshares since they are so unpredictable, and this situation in Tennessee could be very tricky to navigate. There is potential value, though, since all come as punt plays at $4K.
This season, Julius Chestnut has 20 carries for 91 yards while catching two of three targets for 11 more yards. He has played 16 games but only averaged 0.8 fantasy points in very limited touches. Most of his work has come on special teams, although the third-year running back from Sacred Heart has had some highlights in preseason. He hasn’t scored a regular-season touchdown in the last three years and has only 29 carries in 22 games over that span.
Joshua Kelley has produced the most NFL success of the three backs by far from his four years with the Chargers in Los Angeles after they drafted him in the fourth round out of UCLA. Kelley scored six touchdowns and ran for 1,148 rushing yards across those four seasons, and added 50 catches for 319 yards.
However, Kelley has not had a single carry this season after spending time with the Giants early in the season. He worked out for the Chargers and was added to the practice squad in mid-October. He was active for two games but has only played two snaps with no touches this season.
The third back in the mix is Jabari Small, who was an undrafted free agent out of Tennessee. The 23-year-old is known as a slightly under-sized back and did have some solid action this preseason. He has yet to take an NFL carry or be active for a game.
The bottom line
Pollard will probably try to play to hit incentives, but if he doesn’t, Kelley would be my choice from the other three options with Small in the mix if you’re looking for a real “out of nowhere” flier. However, the three-man rotation will make all three high-risk, and there are better value options with clearer paths to playing time to consider building your DFS roster around for this week’s NFL $2.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
