The final week of the NFL regular season is always interesting for a variety of reasons. Some teams are jockeying for playoff seeding or NFL Draft position, while many are also trying to evaluate how specific players can help them in the future. It’s also an important week for players to make a case for their role going forward, as well as for those who are chasing milestones or season totals. Some of those season totals are directly tied to contract incentives, as well, and players are motivated to reach the level needed to get their extra payday. Knowing where those incentives are can help you figure out which player props to target this week as the regular season comes to an end.
Here are my three favorite player props for Week 18 that are tied to bonus incentives in contracts, and a few others to keep an eye on at the bottom of the post.
Mike Evans under 100.5 receiving yards (-110)
Buccaneers WR Mike Evans needs five catches and 85 yards to earn an extra three million dollars. Evans is -265 to reach both those totals, but I really dislike those odds. If you like Evans to reach that total, I’d actually prefer backing him to get 15 more yards at -120 to get 100+ yards.
I actually like Evans to finish with 100 receiving yards or less even more. Last week in a dominant Bucs’ win, Evans had 97 yards against the Panthers. He has only hit 100 yards in two of his 13 games this season and was held to just 34 yards in his first game against the Saints back in Week 6. Baker Mayfield went off in a comfortable 51-27 victory, but Evans was quiet.
The Saints have been very beatable this season and have been almost non-competitive the last few weeks. However, even though they have allowed 165.8 receiving yards per game to opposing WRs, Jerry Jeudy was the last 100-yard receiver against them back in Week 11, and he’s the only receiver to reach that total since Week 8. It’s definitely possible that Evans breaks out for over 100 yards, but it seems like a great number to get him staying under 100 yards since that is what so many trends indicate.
The Bucs will be focused on getting Evans his 85 yards, but at that point, the game could be decided since they are 14-point favorites, so they may sit him at that point to preserve him for the playoffs. As a veteran, Evans obviously will want to hit the mark, but he also understands the importance of the postseason and may be fine with calling it a day once the Bucs have locked up the division title.
Kyler Murray 50+ rushing yards (+300)
The Cardinals and 49ers are both out of playoff contention but Kyler Murray ($6,000) needs 50 rushing yards and a rushing TD for $750K. The odds are long here since it’s a lot of potential hits he’d have to take in a “meaningless” game to get to 50 yards, but I think there’s a much higher chance that he gets there than this number indicates.
Murray has averaged 34.4 rushing yards per game this season and has scored five rushing touchdowns. Most of that was with James Conner (knee) in the backfield though, and without Conner, Murray could get extra work in the running game this week, especially with this incentive on the table.
Murray ran for 63 yards just two weeks ago against the Panthers and also ran for 83 yards in his first matchup with the 49ers. San Francisco’s run defense has been struggling, giving up over 150 rushing yards to the Lions and Dolphins the last two weeks and allowing a 100-yard rusher in five of its last six games.
It’s definitely not a lock, but Murray getting 50 yards is definitely possible with his financial motivation, if he gets his normal workload.
Courtland Sutton 80+ receiving yards (+105)
Courtland Sutton needs 82 receiving yards this week for $500K, and he comes at a good number to get there even though the Chiefs don’t have anything to play for.
Sutton has been held under 60 yards in each of the last three games despite playing overtime last week against the Bengals. Still, he had at least 78 receiving yards in three of his four home games prior to that, and his rookie QB Bo Nix could work to get him the ball early and often. Getting Sutton to his total would not only earn the receiver some extra cash, but it would also set the Broncos up to get the win they need to get into the postseason.
Other incentives to keep in mind
Titans RB Tony Pollard needs 83 rushing yards for $250K, and two rushing touchdowns for another $250K. He missed last week’s game with an illness and has been limited this week in practice due to an ankle injury. With Tyjae Spears (concussion) out, Pollard should get enough work to reach his 83 yards, although odds for that are not out yet. He is +475 to score two touchdowns, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility since the Texans don’t have anything to play for this week and were just trampled by the Ravens.
Seahawks QB Geno Smith needs 186 passing yards for an extra two million dollars. He is -450 to get 200+ passing yards against the Rams, who aren’t expected to start many of their key players. Smith will also get two million if the Seahawks get their 10th win of the season, and the Seahawks are -258 on the Moneyline. Since both of those are such heavy favorites, I actually prefer to take the Seahawks on the spread.
Jets TE Tyler Conklin has missed practice this week with a calf injury after racking up eight catches for 57 yards and a touchdown last week. His 49 receptions on the season have him just one catch away from $250K. Due to his injury, he’s not on the board yet, but I would expect him to play if at all possible — even if it’s just to get one catch. If he is active, I will consider attacking the under on his total catches since once he has his one, I don’t know that he’ll stay very involved due to the injury.
Patriots TE Austin Hooper needs four catches to get an extra $125K. Hooper has had at least three catches in seven straight weeks with 4+ catches in four of the last six weeks. Additionally, Hunter Henry (foot) was listed as questionable, which could open up even more work for Hooper. The receptions over/under odds are not posted yet on DraftKings Sportsbook, but Hooper over 3.5 catches may be a good one to target, especially if Henry is limited or out.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
