Football apparently runs through the North; in the NFC, three of the division’s four teams have already secured their spots in the postseason, while in the AFC, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens are in and the Cincinnati Bengals have a chance of joining them. Baltimore’s record is one game better than Pittsburgh’s, but the Steelers would secure the conference’s No. 3 seed with a victory and a Ravens loss.
Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, its fate will probably be sealed before it even kicks off against the Bengals at 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. Baltimore will host the hapless Cleveland Browns earlier, and the reigning division champs are whopping 19.5-point favorites — the largest point spread so far this season. With nothing to play for, Cleveland will start fourth-string quarterback Bailey Zappe.
A shock Ravens loss and a Pittsburgh win would give the Steelers a home date against the Los Angeles Chargers, while Baltimore would travel to Houston to face the Texans.
If the Ravens win, the Steelers will get the fifth seed if they also win, setting them up for a first-round matchup against in Houston. Pittsburgh could also get the fifth seed if it loses, but that would require the Las Vegas Raiders to upset Los Angeles. A Chargers win, a Ravens win, and a Steelers loss would drop Pittsburgh to the sixth seed and a first-round trip to Baltimore.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati can steal the seventh seed if it beats Pittsburgh, the Denver Broncos lose to the Kansas City Chiefs — unlikely, given that Kansas City will be resting most of its players — and the Miami Dolphins lose to the New York Jets.
With all that cleared up (hopefully), let’s get into the DFS aspect. DraftKings is offering a Showdown contest for the big game, so I’ll take you through my two captain’s picks, two FLEX picks, and one fade. At the end, I’ll provide my score prediction for this all-important divisional clash.
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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Joe Burrow ($15,900 CP) – Picking the player with the second-highest salary as your Captain’s Pick might seem like a risky strategy, but much like I chose Lamar Jackson in this column two weeks ago, the simplest answer is often the best, especially if the player is on a historic hot streak like Burrow is.
The fifth-year Cincinnati quarterback is having arguably the best season of his career, leading the league in completions (423), attempts (606), passing yards (4,641), and passing touchdowns (42). His 109.8 passer rating is the third-best in football, behind only Jackson and the Detroit Lions’ Jared Goff. Burrow has thrown for at least 250 yards and three touchdowns in each of his last eight games, the longest such streak in NFL history. With everything on the line on Saturday, the Bengals will need Burrow to be at his best.
Burrow doesn’t necessarily have an easy matchup against a Steelers defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Although Pittsburgh has allowed opposing quarterbacks to pass for 3,874 yards, the 10th-most of any team, it’s mostly a product of volume; opponents’ 64.4% completion percentage is the 12th-lowest figure in football. The Steelers have also given up the 11th-fewest touchdown passes and recorded the third-most interceptions. Still, Burrow’s 68.4% career completion percentage is the highest figure in NFL history, and he should throw plenty on Saturday, given the elevated stakes and running back Chase Brown’s ankle injury.
Jaylen Warren ($13,200 CP) – Although Warren entered the season as the second-string running back behind former Pro Bowl selection Najee Harris, he has since usurped the bellcow role, appearing in more than half of the team’s offensive snaps in each of the last four games.
Warren has been a solid dual-threat back throughout his three-year NFL career. This season, he’s taken his 114 carries for 490 yards and a score and added another 38 catches and 310 yards through the air. His efficiency (4.30 yards per carry) is significantly better than Harris’ (4.01), and Harris has had a somewhat smaller role in the passing game as well.
Warren should be able to get it going against a pretty average Cincinnati defensive front that has allowed 2,048 rushing yards this season, more than all but 11 teams. Opposing backs have also rushed for the 13th-best efficiency (4.5 yards per carry) and scored 21 touchdowns, more than all but six teams. Overall, the Bengals have allowed the 15th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
FLEX Plays
Russell Wilson ($9,000) – Even though I picked Burrow as a Captain’s Pick earlier, I actually don’t hate Wilson in this game either. The 13-year veteran hasn’t been a world-beater this season and is far past his Seattle Seahawks prime, but he has been a steadying veteran presence, and Pittsburgh would not be 10-6 without him. Wilson has completed 64.6% of his passes this season for 2,334 yards, 15 touchdowns, and five interceptions, and Pro Football Focus grades him as the 17th-best signal-caller in football.
Wilson isn’t a volume passer, by any means; Steelers quarterbacks have dropped back to pass on just 50.15% of plays this year, the fourth-lowest rate in the league. Still, he has been solid when he’s had to be, and prior to a 205-yard, one-pick, five-sack stinker against the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day, he’d put together a couple of good games towards the end of the season. In the five games prior to Christmas, Wilson completed 68.7% of his passes for 1,187 yards, nine touchdowns, and two picks. He’s still a threat on the ground, recording six carries for 55 yards and a touchdown in the loss to the Chiefs.
Cincinnati represents a great opportunity for Wilson to get back on track. The Bengals have allowed 3,868 passing yards this year, the 11th-most in football, and 29 touchdown passes, the fourth-most of any team. Part of their exploitability has to do with their offense’s brilliance — opposing quarterbacks have often been forced to throw in order to keep up with Burrow — but they have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points, making them a good matchup for Wilson to exploit.
Tee Higgins ($9,600) – I could’ve gone with Ja’Marr Chase ($11,600) here, as Burrow’s former LSU teammate seeks to complete the receiving triple crown. With 117 catches, 1,612 yards, and 16 scores, Chase obviously wouldn’t be a bad option, but saving $2,000 is important, given that there aren’t a ton of players available.
Last week, when the Cincinnati needed somebody to step up in order to keep its playoff hopes alive, it was Higgins who turned in the game of his career, catching 11 passes for 131 yards and three scores, including the game-winning catch in overtime. Although Higgins has battled some injuries this season and appeared in only 11 games, he has amassed 69 catches, 858 yards, and 10 scores. He’s arguably the best second option in the league; Pro Football Focus grades him as the sixth-best wide receiver in the league, five places ahead of Chase. Higgins actually leads the Bengals in target share both inside the red zone and on passes into the end zone.
I’ve already covered the Steelers pass defense earlier, which is pretty good by rate statistics but has been frequently challenged and given up a lot of yards. That shouldn’t change on Saturday against a Cincinnati offense that has been the second-most pass-happy in football so far this season and has to lean on its most reliable players in order to make the postseason. I’m expecting big things from Chase, Higgins, and slot receiver Andrei Iosivas ($5,800), who I also considered here as a value option.
Fades
Chase Brown ($10,200) – I’ll admit that I heavily considered fading Harris here for the third straight game, but I decided to go with the opposing running back instead. For starters, Brown is far from a guarantee to play; he suffered a nasty high-ankle sprain late in the fourth quarter of the win against the Broncos last Saturday and has not practiced all week. Even if he does suit up, he won’t be 100% healthy, since high-ankle sprains usually take at least four weeks to fully recover from.
Brown has broken out in his second season after serving as the backup to Joe Mixon in 2023. As the Bengals’ primary back, he’s taken 229 carries for 990 yards and seven touchdowns. He’s also played a big role in the passing game, adding 54 catches, 360 yards, and four scores through the air. His efficiency (4.3 yards per carry) is about average across the league, but his overall stats compare favorably to Mixon’s in 2023.
I have nothing against Brown as a player, but I don’t think he’s worth his $10,200 price tag because of his injury and the likelihood that Burrow will need to stay aggressive. But if Brown doesn’t play, I’d fade Khalil Herbert ($4,000) too. Pittsburgh has an excellent ground defense, allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs this season. Overall, the Steelers have allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards (1,610) and sixth-worst efficiency (4.1 YPC) in the league.
THE OUTCOME
At the end of the day, football is a game of momentum.
Cincinnati has won each of its past four games, and Pittsburgh has lost each of its past three. Sure, the Bengals’ opponents (Dallas, Tennessee, Cleveland, and Denver) were much easier than the Steelers’ (Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Kansas City), but each team’s direction is clear.
Cincinnati has done what it has needed to do against bad teams to bring itself — miraculously — to the edge of the playoff picture, and Pittsburgh has looked extremely unconvincing in its three losses. The Steelers appear to be headed towards their fourth straight defeat and a first-round throttling at the hands of the Ravens.
It doubt it’ll be enough for the Bengals, either. A win to finish with a 9-8 record would be nice, but I think the Broncos will beat up on the Chiefs’ backups and Skylar Thompson will do just enough to beat the Jets, meaning Cincinnati will finish ninth in the AFC.
Final Score: Cincinnati 35, Pittsburgh 27
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All views expressed are my own. I am a promoter at DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
