In their first game of 2025, the Houston Rockets will face the Dallas Mavericks in a top-of-the-West clash that would’ve had a lot more intrigue if not for the calf strain that Mavericks star Luka Dončić suffered on Christmas Day. Still, Dallas has been fairly competitive when Kyrie Irving plays without his co-star, so tonight’s game guarantees to bring fireworks regardless.
The X-factor in the game will be the offensive performance of Houston’s discount Nikola Jokić, Alperen Şengün. The fourth-year Turkish center has been the hub of the Rockets’ offense and has handled his role well, even if he hasn’t shot it quite as efficiently as he did last season. He’s the primary reason why Houston is 20-9, averaging 18.9 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game while shooting 49.1% from the field.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Rockets are five-point favorites and the point total is set to 222.5. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bet centered around Şengün.
Best Alperen Şengün Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Alperen Şengün U20.5 Points (-120)
Prior to Dončić’s injury, the Mavericks were a team with very few weaknesses. For the season, Dallas has the sixth-best offensive rating (116.2) and the 11th-best defensive rating (110.8) in basketball, and it had won eight of its past 10 games prior to its star going down. And while its offense has suffered since Dončić got hurt, averaging just 107.0 points per 100 possessions in the three games he has missed so far, its defense (108.7) has been just fine. And with the Mavericks’ two best defensive players being power forward P.J. Washington and center Dereck Lively II, Şengün could be in for a tough night.
Part of it has to do with the depth of Houston’s roster, but Şengün has been an inconsistent scorer all season. While he has two 30-point performances on his ledger, including a 38-point, 12-rebound masterpiece in a narrow loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on December 27, he also has been held under 20 points 18 times. His usage rate has varied from 18.0% to 36.5%, with little consistency in his role from game to game.
Şengün’s best performance came in a game when neither Dillon Brooks nor Tari Eason suited up. Brooks will certainly play tonight, and Eason is questionable, so I expect his scoring burden to be diminished tonight.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
