After an extremely small slate on Thursday, every team is in action on Friday. Let’s get into some bets I like for tonight on. DraftKings Sportsbook.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25263747/IMG_9722.jpeg)
Bet at a top rated Sportsbook!
View the latest odds and bet online legally at a top rated Sportsbook! Place a bet now at DraftKings Sportsbook!*
*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
The Pick: Game Total over 7 runs -125
I’m surprised this total is so low. Blake Snell will oppose Jordan Montgomery, who’ll be making his 2024 debut. Let’s start with Montgomery first. He signed very late in the offseason, meaning he didn’t get the full Spring Training experience (?). So to combat that, the Diamondbacks sent him to the minors to make two starts. Those didn’t exactly go well. He was tagged for nine runs on 12 hits while striking out nine through 7.2 innings. It’s a small sample but opposing hitters hit .353 off him in those two games. Not exactly what you want to see heading into your major league debut.
Then we have Snell. He’s also off to a slow start, posting a 12.86 ERA through two starts and seven innings. It certainly seems as if he’s been unlucky, indicated by his 3.90 xERA. His command, as usual, has been way off as well, walking four batters through seven innings. Now he’s facing what’s been one of the best offenses in the league against lefties in the Diamondbacks. They have a .365 wOBA with a 129 wRC+ with just a 15% K%. With all this in mind, this feels like a low total to target and one I’m looking to go over on.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Boston Red Sox
The Pick: Pirates Team Total over 3.5 runs -130
I’m fully on board with taking the over on this total against the Red Sox. On the mound for them will by Bryan Bello, who has been one of the only starters struggling for him. Granted, his numbers aren’t bad but compared to the rest of the rotation, he sticks out.He has a 3.92 ERA with a xERA of 3.96 with an 8.2 K/9 and a 2.1 BB/9. However, his outings have been short, having not pitched more than 5.1 innings in four games. Righties have already tagged him for a .393 wOBA with three of the four home runs he’s allowed. The Pirates are 10-9 at hitting the over on their team total but to be fair, this is one of the lower totals we’ve seen for them this season. I wouldn’t be surprised if this moves to 4.5 at some point today.
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
The Pick: Brewers run line -1.5 +142
I don’t view this pitching matchup as close, so I’m puzzled by the numbers here. Kyle Gibson has been atrocious (shocking) while Freddy Peralta has been great! Peralta sports a dazzling 2.55 ERA with a 2.52 xERA, a 13.2 K/9 and just a 1.0 BB/9. Then you have Gibson with his 6.16 ERA, a 7.96 xERA and just a 5.2 K/9. This Brewers offense has been rolling already and is ranked 9th in the league in runs scored to go with a 122 wRC+. I’ll happily take the Brewers to win this game by at least two runs on the road.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24
Place your MLB bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
Refine your research with the DraftKings Sportsbook’s Stats Hub!
From Consistency Sheets and Matchup Tools to System Tools and Player Splits, the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats hub features tools to help with your betting research!
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
