Of all the good teams in the Western Conference, the emphasis has rightly been on the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets. But last season’s conference champions, the Dallas Mavericks, have been as good as ever, winning eight of their last 10 and climbing to fourth in the standings. Even with perennial MVP candidate Luka Dončić sidelined for the last two games with a left heel contusion, the Mavericks held their own, splitting a two-game home set against the LA Clippers.
If Dallas wants any chance of going three wins further than it did last season and lifting the Larry O’Brien Trophy for the first time since 2011, it will need Dončić to play up to his MVP standards come June. So far this season, Dončić has been expectedly brilliant, averaging 28.9 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 8.2 assists per game on 46-36-77 shooting splits.
Dončić is expected to make his return from the heel contusion against the Portland Trail Blazers, who will travel to Dallas for an 8:30 p.m. ET clash.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Mavericks are 11-point favorites and the point total is set to 230. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bets centered around Dončić.
Best Luka Dončić Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Luka Dončić 30+ Points (+115)
Portland is in the second season of a major rebuilding project after trading franchise legend Damian Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks during the 2023 offseason, and the team has experienced the expected growing pains. Center Donovan Clingan, the seventh overall pick in the 2024 Draft, looks like a major piece of the Trail Blazers’ future. Point guard Scoot Henderson, selected third overall in 2023, does not.
Individually, three of Portland’s starters — Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, and Shaedon Sharpe — rank among the worst 40 defenders in the league among players with at least 20 games played and 20 minutes per game, along with two key reserves, Henderson and Deni Avdija. As one of the most physically imposing guards in the league, Dončić should have no trouble getting his way against the 181-pound Simons or 200-pound Sharpe.
As a team, the Trail Blazers have the fifth-worst defensive rating, allowing 116.5 points per 100 possessions. Portland has no real strengths on defense, owning bottom-ten ranks in opponent points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals. In the teams’ last matchup, a 137-131 Dallas win on December 1, Dončić dropped 36 points, seven rebounds, and 13 assists in, coincidentally, another injury return game.
Luka Dončić to Record a Triple-Double (+700)
If you’re looking for a long shot with favorable odds, look no further than the man who ranks seventh all-time in triple-doubles despite being in just his seventh season. Yes, Dončić’s 8.6 rebounds and 8.2 assists per game are ever-so-slightly below his career averages, and he’s only recorded three triple-doubles so far this season.
Those three triple-doubles have come in Dončić’s last four games. Before suffering his heel injury, he had been playing his best basketball of the season. Over a six-game stretch between his return from a wrist injury and the heel contusion, Dončić averaged 30.8 points, 9.7 rebounds, 10.7 assists, and 3.3 steals per game on 52-43-73 splits, racking up the three triple-doubles. His most recent game was his most ridiculous, as he dropped 45 points, 11 rebounds, and 13 assists in a December 15 win over the Golden State Warriors.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
