It’s hard to expect too much from a team that just lost its starting quarterback for the rest of the season. It’s even harder to have high expectations when its star running back, one of the best dual-threat players in the league, will also miss the game.
That’s the situation that the New Orleans Saints find themselves in heading into their Monday Night Football clash against the 10-4 Green Bay Packers. Quarterback Derek Carr fractured his hand two weeks ago and is likely to miss the rest of the season, while running back Alvin Kamara suffered a groin injury and might not return in 2024 either.
Kamara’s injury leaves second-year running back Kendre Miller as New Orleans’ top option. Miller has played sparingly this season, only appearing in four games, but he has been effective when he has done so, taking 28 carries for 130 yards and a score.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Saints are 14-point underdogs, and the point total is set at 43. Below, I’ve identified my favorite prop bet centered around Miller.
Best Kendre Miller Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook
Kendre Miller U51.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
When he has played, Miller has been one of the more efficient backs in football. He has averaged 4.6 yards per carry, which would be the 14th-best average in the league if he had recorded the 80 carries necessary to qualify. Pro Football Focus gives him a 74.0 grade, slightly higher than Kamara’s.
However, New Orleans plans to employ a committee approach at Lambeau Field, Saints interim head coach Darren Rizzi said on Saturday. Rizzi said that Miller’s workload would likely be shared with veteran Jamaal Williams — who has previously played for the Packers, as well as road games in Green Bay with the Detroit Lions — and second-year Jordan Mims.
I am also skeptical about Miller’s ceiling because the Saints have dropped back to pass on 62.6% of possessions in which quarterback Spencer Rattler has appeared this season, which would be the seventh-highest rate in the NFL. Perhaps Rattler won’t throw quite as much as usual, given the sub-freezing temperatures in Green Bay, but he developed a reputation as a reckless gunslinger both at Oklahoma and South Carolina and should be unafraid to take shots through the air.
The Packers have a strong rush defense that has conceded just 1,470 yards so far this season, the eighth-fewest of any team, and their efficiency (4.2 yards per carry) is the ninth-best in football. Green Bay has also done a good job keeping opposing backs out of the end zone; its 12 touchdowns allowed this season are fewer than all but nine teams.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
