The Miami Marlins will take on the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League Wild Card Round in the 2023 MLB playoffs.
The Marlins snatched the fifth seed in the NL with a magical final week (and a collapse from the Chicago Cubs), but it remains to be seen whether this Cinderella story will strike midnight this week. Miami has a -56 run differential on the year, easily the worst of any postseason team, and got to October on the back of a bonkers 33-13 record in one-run games this season.
We saw the sort of devil magic the Phillies conjured up during last season’s run to the World Series, and there were times down the stretch this year that they started feeling that way again. They just haven’t been able to do it with any sort of consistency, although it was more than good enough to gain separation in a lackluster Wild Card race and put the top spot to bed without issue in September.
Let’s take a look at the starting pitchers for the best-of-5 series.
Marlins vs. Phillies starting pitchers
Marlins
Game 1: Jesus Luzardo (10-9, 3.63 ERA)
Game 2: Braxton Garrett (9-7, 3.66 ERA)
Game 3: Edward Cabrera (7-7, 4.24 ERA)
Miami could really use Sandy Alcantara or Eury Perez this week, but alas, those two electric righties are both out with injury. All isn’t lost, though, as they still have some formidable bullets in the chamber — led by Luzardo, who’s been a bit inconsistent (especially with his command) but is as good as anyone when he’s on. The lefty has struck out 208 over 178.2 innings this season, and posted a 3.68 ERA in September — including 10 Ks over 7.1 innings in his final start against the Mets last week.
After that, Garrett will get the ball in Game 2, looking to build on a very solid past couple of months in which he’s posted six quality starts over 10 outings. He allowed three runs over five innings of work in his one previous start against Philly this season, and his introduction of a cutter midseason led to a spike in his ground ball rate and far more consistency on the mound.
Phillies
Game 1: Zack Wheeler (13-6, 3.61 ERA)
Game 2: Aaron Nola (12-9, 4.46 ERA)
Game 3: TBD
Wheeler has been even better than his top-line numbers suggest, with a 3.18 xERA and elite batted-ball marks. He’s allowed more than three runs in just nine of his 32 starts this season, has failed to go at least six innings in just nine of 32, and has quality starts in each of his three outings against the Marlins this season.
After that, though, the question marks begin. Nola has the pedigree, but he was a disaster against the Astros in the World Series last year and has struggled through a tremendously disappointing campaign in 2023 — every time he takes a step forward, it seems like it’s followed by two steps backwards. He also pitched poorly a few weeks ago against Miami, allowing four runs on seven hits in just 4.1 innings. The Phils have yet to announce who would start a potential Game 3, but Taijuan Walker (15-6, 4.38 ERA) and rookie Cristopher Sanchez (3-5, 3.44) are the most likely candidates.