The second game of the NFL’s Week 16 Saturday slate is an AFC North matchup between the Steelers and Ravens. Baltimore is a 6.5-point favorite and the game total is set at O/U 44.5 total points on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Steelers will be without George Pickens for a third straight game and have a few key defensive injuries to worry about. The Ravens listed wide receivers Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor as questionable and are also dealing with their fair share of defensive injuries.
All these injuries certainly make betting harder to gauge, especially first touchdown scorer prop bets. Still, it’s a divisional matchup and Lamar Jackson is looking to erase the narratives that he can’t beat the Steelers. That said, who will find pay dirt first? Read below for my top first touchdown pick for Steelers vs. Ravens.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Mark Andrews First TD Scorer (+1000)
It is a dangerous game to fade Derrick Henry in a divisional game that will feature tons of physicality and running but he hasn’t found the end zone in three weeks. Baltimore’s injuries to its wide receiver room suggest it may try to lean on Henry more often but Pittsburgh’s run defense ranks 11th in rush EPA and fifth in yards per carry. That leads me to Andrews, who has scored in seven of the past nine games, including the first touchdown in back-to-back games.
While he has only averaged 3.8 targets per game this season, he has totaled at least five in three of the past five games and leads all Ravens’ pass-catchers with 10 red zone targets. He was targeted only three times in Week 11 in Pittsburgh but could see extra looks with Agholor looking like he will sit out with a concussion. It is worth noting that he has never scored against the Steelers in his career but they have struggled overall to limit Andrews, and they rank in the middle of the pack against opposing tight ends this season. Jackson has been looking for him often on long-yardage red zone downs and that bodes well against a Pittsburgh red zone defense that is significantly worse on the road.
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