We had a great week to start April in this space. Specifically, we went 4-0 (+4.2u) on article plays, bringing us to 5-1 (+3.8u) for the season as a whole. Let’s look to keep that momentum going on tonight’s 13-game slate.
Here are my favorite bets on the diamond for Monday.
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Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
Aaron Ashby Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Ashby is a bit of a mystery entering the 2024 season. The former top prospect didn’t throw a pitch at the MLB level in 2023, as an injury derailed his entire campaign. However, Ashby is set to return to the Brewers on Monday, with Jakob Junis (shoulder) unable to make his normal turn in the rotation. While there are some concerns with Ashby’s velocity — in comparison to where he sat pre-injury — the 25-year-old is fully built up as a starter. Last Tuesday, Ashby worked into the sixth inning in an outing with Triple-A Nashville, tossing 77 pitches in the process. He should be relatively unrestricted this evening.
Ashby has always been a strikeout artist. While he’s only thrown 139.0 innings with Milwaukee in his career, he owns a 27.1% strikeout rate in those appearances. The lefty also managed a jaw-dropping 100 strikeouts in 63.1 innings at Triple-A in 2021 — his longest stretch in the International League. This matchup is pretty juicy, too. The Reds currently own baseball’s highest strikeout rate as a team (28.7%), a figure they pair with the National League’s lowest overall contact rate (73.6%). If Ashby can work into the sixth once again, six strikeouts should be very attainable.
Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays
Under 8 (-105)
On paper, this is a pretty good pitching matchup. While I would stop short of calling Jose Berrios an “ace” at this point in his career, the 29-year-old has maintained a 3.57 ERA going back to the beginning of last season. That’s a span of 34 starts and 201.2 innings. On the other side we find Luis Castillo, a man who finished fifth in AL Cy Young voting in 2023. Castillo has allowed four earned runs in both outings he’s made so far in 2024 — and he’s not been generating many swings and misses — yet most of his issues can be explained through either small samples or a .424 opponent BABIP. I’m confident that Castillo remains of the best pitchers in MLB.
Still, if I’m being completely honest, the allure of betting this under has far more to do with each team’s lineup. Both the Jays and Mariners have struggled to score runs through the season’s opening two weeks. Toronto comes into Monday’s tilt in possession of a team batting average well-below the Mendoza line (.193), while Seattle pairs the American League’s highest strikeout rate (28.7%) with a putrid 78 wRC+. Things get even more bleak when you isolate the numbers for right-handed opponents. The Mariners sport the AL’s lowest ISO (.099) and wRC+ (70) within the split. Not to be outdone, the Jays are slashing just .176/.288/.290 versus RHPs. It’s early, but Seattle and Toronto’s perceived strength coming into 2023 were definitely the two team’s pitching staffs. Run production was a question mark for both organizations and, so far, that’s proving to be correct.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
