AL MVP race: How MLB season so far has impacted odds

Hard as it is to believe, we’re nearly halfway through the 2023 MLB season. The sample size isn’t so small now, meaning we can say with a bit more confidence which breakouts are for real and which slow starts may not be much of a fluke after all. The landscape has shifted quite a bit over the past few weeks — Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez are both on the IL for the foreseeable future, the Texas Rangers’ entire lineup is set to smash some offensive records, the Tampa Bay Rays (and Mike Trout) have hit a bit of a lull and Shohei Ohtani … well, he continues to do Shohei Ohtani things — and the awards race markets have responded accordingly.

So, just like we did at the beginning of June, let’s celebrate the start of June with a look at how the past month has impacted the AL MVP odds over at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Updated AL MVP odds as of June 26

Shohei Ohtani -650 Corey Seager +3000 Wander Franco +3500
Randy Arozarena +4000 Adley Rutschman +4000 Marcus Semien +4000
Bo Bichette +5000 Aaron Judge +5000 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +5500
Mike Trout +6000 Yordan Alvarez +7000 Kyle Tucker +7000

AL MVP race: Takeaways and best bets

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels

Look, Ohtani was always going to be the frontrunner to take this award home, but it’s remarkable how much the deck has cleared over the past month or so. Judge and Alvarez, as previously mentioned have been on the IL for weeks now and figure to remain there for at least several weeks more. Many of the teams we thought were most likely to contend in the AL this season — Yankees, Blue Jays and Astros, specifically — can’t seem to get out of neutral. Mike Trout and Kyle Tucker have taken a step back. Even the Rays have come back to Earth a bit, going just (“just”) 31-21 across May and June after their historic April — while Wander Franco was recently benched multiple games for an unspecified disciplinary issue.

It was going to take a historic effort (like, you know, breaking the AL home run record) to unseat Ohtani, but this is also among the weakest crop of contenders we’ve seen in a while.

Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays

That being said, there’s always a chance that — god forbid — Ohtani suffers an injury or holds out for a trade after watching the Angels pitching staff or something. And in that unlikely event, who from the rest of the pack is the best bet to step up and snag the hardware?

Our money’s on Franco, despite the suspension mentioned above. Tampa’s players and staff seem to have rallied around the mega-talented youngster, and he announced his return to the lineup with a dinger on Saturday.

Franco grades out as the best defender of the middle infielders — Seager, Semien, Bichette, etc — in contention here, and he also happens to have the biggest upside in terms of counting stats. The 22-year-old already has a whopping 25 steals to go with his .810 OPS, and if he stays out of trouble and in the lineup, we could be looking at a 20/50 season. Combine those numbers with elite defense at shortstop that should keep him leading all AL position players in WAR, add in a Rays team that still figures to finish with the league’s best record, and you’ve got yourself a very solid MVP case. But seriously, Shohei, please stay healthy.