It’s almost hockey time and the 2023-24 NHL season will start on Oct. 10. The Pacific Division gave us a champion last season with the Vegas Golden Knights winning for the first time in their short history. The Golden Knights are also defending division champs after beating out the Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings. That group should be toward the top of the division again this season. Or will a dark horse team emerge from the …. depths? forest? ashes? Let’s preview the Pacific Division and crown a champion.
2023-24 NHL predictions: Pacific Division
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The Oilers and Knights enter the season with the top-2 odds to win the Pacific. Edmonton gets the edge over Vegas mostly because of how last season finished. From the beginning of March, the Oilers finished the season 18-2-1. That included a nine-game winning streak to end the season, nearly knocking the Golden Knights off the Pacific throne. Edmonton also had Evander Kane for half a season in 2022-23 and D Mattias Ekholm played 21 games after being acquired at the Trade Deadline. A full season with both Kane and Ekholm, plus Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and steady goaltending and that’s why the Oilers are favored to win the Pacific.
Oddly enough, the Oilers and Kings have never won the Pacific Division in its current iteration. The Golden Knights have won the division three times since their inception in 2017-18. The other two times it was the Calgary Flames atop the division. And before that it was the Anaheim Ducks’ five-year reign. So it wouldn’t take much for the Golden Knights to repeat as champions despite a tough division.
Vegas brings back most of the core from the Cup run. Reilly Smith was sent to Pittsburgh but the Knights have some young forwards to replace him. Brett Howden will get first crack at that spot in the top-6 while Michael Amadio played up most of last season with Mark Stone also out. Having the captain healthy to begin the season should help, plus Adin Hill should solve some questions in net that Vegas had to begin last season. My concern would be on defense. It’s a talented group but also a group that is aging and has played a ton of hockey recently. If nothing else the Golden Knights have the coaching and defensive structure to win games. That’s what will keep them in the top of the division.
The Kings are our first bet among these odds. Los Angeles is behind the Oilers and Golden Knights in terms of odds but it should be more even during the season. Had things gone slightly different, there was a scenario where the Kings win the division last season. Los Angeles has had an active offseason, adding C Pierre-Luc Dubois via trade with the Jets.
The Kings have a very deep forward group that should be very tough to play against. It was also a group that was among the best on the power play. The blue line has some question marks but it also could have a big addition in Brandt Clarke. Goaltending could be the main issue but last season the Kings were fine getting by with a washed up Jonathan Quick and Pheonix Copley, plus 11 games from Joonas Korpisalo and 10 from Cal Petersen. Now it’ll be Copley and Cam Talbot splitting time and you’ve got to be a bit concerned on that group holding up through 82 games.
Dark Horses
I’m not entirely sure what Vegas is doing with the Kraken’s futures entering 2023-24. This is a group that, sure, over-performed in its second NHL season in existence. It’s also a damn good hockey team that should only get better. Seattle shocked the Avalanche in the first round last season and spent time atop the Pacific early on. The Kraken are going to bring back the same relentless roster from last season. But it should be better given another year to build chemistry and Year 2 of Matty Beniers, the reigning Calder Trophy winner.
Sure, goaltending was an issue last season. That didn’t stop the Kraken from making the playoffs and winning a series. Seattle was 15th in goals against but bottom-3 in save percentage. Any improvement in save percentage could get the Kraken into the top-10 in goals against. Philipp Grubauer will remain the starter but Chris Driedger should be an upgrade over Martin Jones. Any minor improvement in net coupled with continuity on offense and defense should mean the Kraken get better this season, not worse. At +1100 to win the division, that bet sounds great.
The Flames and Canucks don’t feel like contenders. Calgary especially could finish last in the division. The Flames really botched Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk and now Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm could be next to leave. If the team falters out the gate, the fire sale could be on.
Vancouver should compete for a playoff spot but also could revert and be bad again. The Canucks are going to be a handful offensively to deal with. Defensively, just not much there. When looking at the Golden Knights, Kings, Oilers and Kraken, there’s just not a scenario where the Canucks can beat out any of those four teams. We would have to see a Vezina-worthy season from Thatcher Demko for the Canucks to get even close to the top of the Pacific.
Which brings us to the bottom — the Sharks and Ducks. Anaheim is interesting. Not so much to jump up and win the division but to be more competitive this season. The Ducks are likely a few years away but they do have the best goaltender in the division in John Gibson. It’s a talented forward group let by Trevor Zegras, Troy Terry, Mason McTavish and 2023 first-rounder Leo Carlsson. Don’t be surprised if at some point in the middle of the season that the Ducks are ahead of a few teams to win the Pacific.
Verdict
The Oilers should win the division if all goes well. But if I had to make any other bets, it would be Kings +450 and Kraken +1100. The difference is goaltending and McDavid. Edmonton has the most talent but it’s also the Oilers. I think the Cup hangover hits Vegas but the Knights still make the playoffs. All I’m going to say is look out for Seattle.
Oilers +165
Golden Knights +260
Kings +450
Flames +750
Kraken +1100
Canucks +1200
Sharks +20000
Ducks +30000
