The Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves kick off the 2024 Western Conference Finals Wednesday evening with Game 1 from Target Center in Minneapolis. The Mavericks had an extra day off after taking out the Thunder in six games, while the Timberwolves went to the Mile High City and took out the defending champions Nuggets in a comeback win in Game 7. The Timberwolves hold a 3-1 edge over the Mavericks in the regular season matchups but Dallas has improved tremendously over the last few months on the defensive end.
Luka Doncic is probable with a knee issue, while Maxi Kleber and Olivier-Maxence Prosper are out. Mike Conley is questionable officially but should play after suiting up in Games 6 and 7 against Denver.
The Timberwolves are 4.5-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook with the total coming in at 207. Minnesota is -185 on the moneyline while Dallas is +154.
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves, 8:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Timberwolves -4.5
The Mavericks are actually a great road team, going 31-16 ATS as the road team this season. However, they’ve come out sluggish in Games 1 in these playoffs. Dallas got smoked by the Clippers and Thunder in the openers of both series, while the Timberwolves have come out on fire in series openers. Minnesota would’ve covered this line in all three wins it had over Dallas in the regular season.
Anthony Edwards has been great in Game 1s, going for 33 points against the Suns before dropping 43 on the Nuggets. The Timberwolves are the more balanced team and run a deeper rotation, which will help them overcome having one less day off. I think Minnesota gets the job done fairly easily in Game 1 and takes a 1-0 lead.
Over/Under: Over 207
Dallas is 5-7 to the over during the playoffs while Minnesota is 6-5 to the over. During the regular season, these teams would’ve gone over this line in all four of their matchups. The Mavericks and Timberwolves would’ve been 1-1 to the over on this total in their Game 1s. Given how low this number is, I’ll take the over.