The Premier League has reached Matchweek 14 with the first midweek action of the season so far, and there are a lot of critical matchups on tap at both the top and bottom of the table. For those looking to get in on the football action, there’s no shortage of options at DraftKings Sportsbook. Here are my top betting picks for Wednesday’s Premier League slate.
Here’s a look at the full schedule for Wednesday’s games:
Everton at Wolves, 2:30 p.m. EST
Manchester City at Nottingham Forest, 2:30 p.m. EST
Newcastle at Liverpool, 2:30 p.m. EST
Southampton at Chelsea, 2:30 p.m. EST
Arsenal at Manchester United, 3:15 p.m. EST
Aston Villa at Brentford, 3:15 p.m. EST
Liverpool Moneyline (-130)
After Premier League fans have experienced four straight years of Manchester City’s dominance, it might be a refreshing change to have a new team atop the table. But the fact that the league has a new front-runner this year doesn’t make it any more competitive. In fact, the other 19 teams are lucky that Liverpool’s lead is only eight points.
By expected goals, Liverpool has both the strongest attack and defense in the Premier League. Its expected goal difference of +15.2 is nearly double that of Tottenham, which sits seventh in the table but second in expected goal difference at +8.0. That margin is nearly as large as the gap between Spurs and tenth-place Newcastle at +0.7.
After a relatively hot start to the season, picking up 10 points from their first five matches, the Magpies have cooled down, grabbing just nine points in their last eight games. Traveling to Anfield to face the red-hot leaders seems like too tall a task for Newcastle.
Chelsea O3.5 Goals (+235)
Since returning to the Premier League, Southampton’s defense has been awful, and Chelsea’s attack has been firing on all cylinders in recent games. The Saints have allowed 25 goals in their first 13 matches, the third-most of any club, but expected goals suggest they should have allowed even more: a league-leading 27.2.
Meanwhile, Chelsea’s Senegalese striker Nicolas Jackson has found his form by smashing in eight goals already this season, forming a formidable attacking partnership with English attacking midfielder and winger Cole Palmer, who has bagged eight of his own. The Blues have scored 26 goals already this season, more than any team besides Tottenham, and only Liverpool is in better form. Enzo Maresca’s men fired three past Aston Villa on Sunday and look poised to do one better against Southampton’s weaker defense.
Manchester City and Nottingham Forest to draw (+425)
Form is a real thing in the Premier League, and, having gone seven consecutive matches without a win, the four-time defending champions are in rough form. Since picking up a 1-0 win against bottom-of-the-table Southampton on October 26, City has suffered four consecutive Premier League defeats, including a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of Tottenham Hotspur on November 23. Frustrations surrounding Pep Guardiola’s squad are high, as evidenced by the veteran manager taunting the crowd at Anfield after a 2-0 loss to Liverpool on Sunday.
Sure, City is still probably the favorite in this match, but Nottingham Forest has quietly had an incredible season of its own. Forest sits just one point behind City and one position lower in the table, and is in hotter form than all but Liverpool, Chelsea, and Brentford. Man City will eventually stop its slide, but I don’t think it’ll happen against a scrappy Forest side at the City Ground. Betting on Forest to pick up a point seems like a smart proposition, given the attractive odds.
Both Everton and Wolves to Score (-135)
Wednesday’s match between 15th-place Everton and 18th-place Wolves will be a massive relegation six-pointer, so fans can expect it to bring fireworks. And, given Wolves’ track record so far this season, it’ll also bring loads of goals. Wolverhampton’s attack has been almost as forceful as its defense has been leaky.
Wolves’ problem hasn’t been putting the ball in the back of the net; they’ve scored 22 times this season, more than all but five teams, thanks to the clinical finishing of top scorer Matheus Cunha. The problem is goalkeeper José Sá, who has let in a league-high 32 goals this season, eight more than expected based on the shot quality he has faced.
Everton’s attack hasn’t been in good form, as they’ve scored just 10 goals, tied for the least in the league with the hapless Southampton, but Wolves’ defensive woes will offer the Toffees a chance to get back on track.
Bryan Mbeumo Anytime Goal Scorer (+260)
Aston Villa may roster goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez, the two-time defending Yashin Trophy winner and 2022 World Cup hero for Argentina. But here’s the thing: Martinez hasn’t actually had a good season. Aston Villa’s defense has actually been stout by expected goals, allowing the sixth-lowest shot quality in the Premier League. However, Martinez has conceded 22 goals already this season, six more than expected and a major part of the reason why the Villans have picked up just two points from their last five Premier League games.
Enter Brentford’s leading man, Bryan Mbeumo. Mbeumo is one of the most underrated strikers in the league and is part of a four-way tie, along with his teammate Yoane Wissa and the aforementioned Chelsea duo, for fourth top scorer in the Premier League. Mbeumo has scored in six of his 13 Premier League appearances so far this season, and with +260 odds to find the back of the net against an out-of-form Villa team, I think he’s a good bet to slot one home on Wednesday.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
