Kentucky Wildcats head coach John Calipari used to say one phrase often when talking about getting top players to his program. It’s always stuck with me and it’s important to understand when looking at how Calipari has built his reputation at the school.
“This is not for everyone.”
The Wildcats have the most NBA first-round picks among college programs, ahead of other blue bloods like Duke, North Carolina and Kansas. Under Calipari, they became known as the “one and done” school. Kentucky’s rosters have shifted dramatically every year due to this phenomenon, which is part of the way Calipari sells his program. Commit here if you want to play in the NBA as soon as possible.
This practice doesn’t come without risks. What Calipari gains in pure talent he sacrifices in team chemistry and experience. That tradeoff usually doesn’t matter much over the span of 30+ regular season games but it can quickly hurt you in the single-elimination format of March Madness. That’s why Calipari hasn’t reached a Final Four in eight seasons entering the 2024 tournament.
To be clear, this isn’t a “Calipari should be fired if he fails to make the Final Four” story. He essentially has a lifetime contract at Kentucky, and he’s raised the profile of the school even if he hasn’t had a deep postseason run lately. That’s an important backdrop heading into this year’s tournament. At a blue blood program like Kentucky, eight years without a Final Four might as well be a lifetime. And I know what that feels like since my alma mater hasn’t made a Final Four ever.
Kentucky fans have a reason to be frustrated by this drought but they also have a reason to be optimistic this year could change that. Calipari might be the king of landing “one and done” lottery picks, but even he has made an adjustment to his formula. Is this the year it finally pays off?
Calipari’s “star” recruits have gotten worse
If you look at the level of success Calipari’s best players have had, you will see a decline in the quality of recruit he’s getting. Anthony Davis, John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Karl-Anthony Towns and Devin Booker represent the upper echelon of Kentucky’s best players. They have combined for 25 All-Star appearances. A step down from these guys are De’Aaron Fox, Bam Adebayo, Julius Randle, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jamal Murray. They’ve notched nine combined All-Star appearances but there’s surely more coming. After all, these guys are just starting to hit their stride as stars in the league. When looking at Calipari’s five teams that registered 30+ wins, you will find some of the players above on them. The exception is his 2018-19 squad, which still featured four current NBA players headlined by Tyler Herro.
The problem for Calipari is being unable to find this caliber of player lately. There are several reasons for this. The first is the rise of social media and personal branding, which gives players the ability to build their own platform. Zion Williamson and Ja Morant are the best example of this. Williamson went to a blue blood school, while Morant went to tiny Murray State. They went 1-2 in the NBA draft and were among the most searched players in college. Neither of them needed Kentucky to do that.
And as college basketball continues to change, more of the best talent will take alternative paths such as Overtime Elite, where the best-of-the-best can focus on getting ready for the NBA every day without the academic requirements of college students. Those players can also begin earning money via endorsements right away, and it serves as the “finishing school” before the NBA that Cal has been selling to recruits since his time at Memphis.
The second issue for Calipari is the adjustment from the NBA as a whole. For a long time, only Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich would heavily invest in looking at international players. His “draft and stash” players became a running joke. Now, everyone is looking at the international basketball scene. The reigning Finals MVP didn’t play at Kentucky. The last No. 1 pick didn’t play college basketball in America. And while the NBL, G League Ignite and other avenues don’t completely poach top talent, they take enough away to make a dent. NIL has made a difference too. Kentucky (and others) were paying players long before it became legal to do so, but now everyone is investing big money through collectives to land the best players.
Even though Calipari continues to pull in top recruiting classes, he can no longer say “this isn’t for everyone” to players. That has directly resulted in worse rosters for him and in turn, worse results. Prior to the first COVID year, Calipari’s worst season was with a 21-win team that got bounced in the first round of the NIT. That group was the only one during a five-year stretch that didn’t make the Final Four. Two of those five teams played in the title game and one of them won it all. Since the first COVID year, Calipari’s worst team finished with just nine wins. He hasn’t made the second weekend of the tournament.
Re-inventing the formula
Because of the changing recruiting landscape, Calipari has modified his previous formula. Even though Kentucky’s best teams might’ve been headlined by freshmen draft prospects, there were holdovers who provided experience and chemistry. Darius Miller, Doron Lamb and Terrence Jones were key contributors on the title team. The Harrison twins, Alex Poythress and Dakari Johnson returned after their run to the championship game to create Calipari’s greatest rotation ever.
In Calipari’s first 11 seasons, the leading scorer on his teams was either a freshman or sophomore. That’s not surprising given most players don’t stay at Kentucky longer than two seasons. In his last four seasons, including this year, the leading scorer on Kentucky has been an upperclassman. Instead of relying on potential lottery prospects to come back, Calipari has tapped into the transfer portal to get his experienced players. Antonio Reeves and Tre Mitchell are the latest examples of this. Both are big parts of Kentucky’s 2023-24 team, with Reeves leading the Wildcats in scoring. There are still some holdovers but this is the way Calipari would prefer to operate. Bring in a handful of NBA prospects but have a foundation with experienced players.
This has allowed Kentucky to avoid some of the ups and downs that come with freshmen-heavy teams. Typically, the recruits take a few months to really hit their stride. Given the games Kentucky usually gets asked to play in at the beginning of the season, that can be potentially damaging. The veterans have stabilized things a bit.
Is this the year?
Kentucky will have to win the national title to get to 30 wins on the season. This roster hasn’t reached the heights of Calilpari’s best teams but it is the most complete of his post-COVID groups. He’s got two lottery bonafide lottery prospects, with Reed Sheppard even being in the conversation to be the No. 1 overall pick, and two other freshmen who are consistent contributors. While the youngsters might not have the same ability to carry a team like Davis or Towns, they are still highly talented. And they’ve got some good veterans to lean on.
The Wildcats do lack size, and that’s hurt them defensively. However, they are the fifth-best offensive team according to KenPom and that puts them squarely in the conversation when it comes to the Final Four.
Calipari has been landing NBA prospects for years and will continue to do so but his adjustment with the changes in college athletics has set him and Kentucky up better for the tournament. Is this the year his modified formula works?
