College basketball returns with a massive slate of games on Monday. While most teams are just tuning up, Purdue and Gonzaga will start its seasons off with a big test against each other in Las Vegas. The Bulldogs open the season ranked No. 15 overall, and favored over a Boilermakers team that finds itself just outside the AP Top-25. Let’s breakdown some betting angles on this one.
Purdue vs. Gonzaga prediction, preview
Mark Few has a history of having Gonzaga ready to go for these early season challenges against other big name schools. With all those years in the WCC, and now in the PAC-12, showing up in the non-conference games early has mattered even more. This time around, the Zags catch a Purdue team that could have a lot of work to do in order to discover its identity.
The Boilermakers lost their top-four scorers from a season ago, all of which averaged in double figures. Most notably, Braden Smith, who started at point guard in every single game for the last four seasons. Smith averaged 14.3 points, 8.8 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 1.7 steals while shooting 36.2% from downtown in his final season. He barely came off the floor, and was really the identity of this team. And it’s not like the rest of the core that surrounded Smith is back either — Trey Kaufman-Renn (14.2 points and 8.3 rebounds), Fletcher Loyer (14.2 points on 43.2% from downtown) and Oscar Cluff (10.6 points and 7.5 rebounds) are all gone.
C.J. Cox is the lone returning starter for Purdue. He’ll become the do-it-all guy in Smith’s role, but has some growing to do. His main help is expected to come from the likes of Caden Pierce, who steps up transfering in from the Ivy League, and Daniel Jacobsen. Yes, the Boilermakers do have another enormous big man, as is tradition. Jacobsen is 7’4″, but has a lot of developing to do after sitting on the bench for a couple of seasons.
While Purdue dominated a couple of lower level exhibitions, it was humbled in a matchup with UConn, losing by 23 points. The Boilermakers finished with just 53 points and really struggled finding ways to score. Gonzaga isn’t exactly UConn, but its still pretty good.
The Bulldogs have key veterans on the roster that should give them the edge in a game where Purdue is still learning itself. Braden Huff returns for his senior season, after averaging nearly 18 points for the Zags last season, despite missing time due to injury. He gets some serious help in the frontcourt in a transfer from Arizona State. Massamba Diop averaged 13.6 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.1 blocks for the Sun Devils, and provides a body to go up against Jacobsen.
The backcourt gets some veteran leadership in Xavian Lee, who started every game he played at point guard for Florida last season. Davis Fogle returns after getting hot towards the end of his freshman season and should see his role continue to grow. Javon Bennett transfers from Dayton after averaging almost 16 points in the A-10 last season, while Isiah Harwell comes from Houston, where he was a part of the rotation off the bench.
Purdue vs. Gonzaga pick, best bet
I give a lot of edges to the Zags in this one. The Bulldogs are more experienced, have good depth, and should have a semi-home crowd out in Vegas. Given Purdue is putting a lot of new pieces together here, I could see a slower start. Rather than lay 5.5 with Gonzaga, I think playing the Bulldogs to lead at halftime and win the game is the stronger play for the side.
Gonzaga projects as a pretty solid team on the defensive side this season. Given the 53 points Purdue put up against UConn, I could see this one being a bit of a grinder. Also lean to the under if you prefer a play on the total.
